These 12 Teams Will Make the 2025 College Football Playoff

My favorite time of year is here. College football kicks off this weekend, and as I write this, Boise State just went 24-7 down to South Florida.

Safe to say I’m glad I left the Broncos out of my playoff prediction.

I’m definitely guilty of procrastinating on this, but this season is really difficult to predict. Every power conference has multiple teams with legitimate chances to make the playoff, and more teams than ever believe they have a shot at the National Championship.

I’ve waited long enough, and there’s no point in beating around the bush any longer. Here is my prediction for the 2025-26 college football season.

Just missing the playoffs

13. Miami

The Hurricanes certainly have enough talent to make the playoff, but I have them falling just short. I really like the Canes’ defensive front, but I equally dislike Carson Beck. Regardless, this is more of a bet against the ACC as a whole; I only have one team getting in. There are enough ‘losable’ games on the schedule that I would expect Miami to finish somewhere around 9-3. I don’t think will get it done if it doesn’t win the conference.

14. LSU
The Tigers were the first SEC team on the outside looking in. Their offense will be very good in 2025. I expect Garrett Nussmeier to finish somewhere around or atop the Heisman race when all is said and done. However, I have way too many concerns about LSU’s defense to slot it into the postseason. It will be dependent on transfers, but I’m not a believer in this past off-season’s portal class as a whole. We’ll find out pretty quickly if my concerns are valid when LSU faces Clemson to start the year.

15. Oregon
I have a couple Big Ten teams right on the cusp of the playoff, the first of which being the Ducks. It feels like a significant stretch to have Oregon go from the top seed to completely out. However, I am selling the Ducks’ offense in a big way. Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes might be the Big Ten’s best running back, but I have no faith in Dante Moore behind center. To make matters worse, Evan Stewart is already done for the year. With a schedule that features Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and Washington, I’m betting that Oregon will lose several of those.

16. Michigan
Michigan would have been pretty close to the playoff last season with even average quarterback play. They did not have that last year. However, Bryce Underwood will, at worst, give them average play behind center. Yes, I know the Wolverines lose defensive stars across multiple levels, but I like the guys expected to replace them. Derrick Moore is a ready-made replacement for Mason Graham, and Zeke Berry emerged as a true number one corner in Will Johnson’s injury absence. I expect enough bumps in the road with a true freshman quarterback that Michigan will miss out, but they’ll be much closer than many expect.

17. Baylor
Baylor flat out has a playoff-caliber offense. Sawyer Robertson is one of the country’s best quarterbacks, and the talent is there around him to comprise a very capable offensive unit. However, I have a feeling the Bears might end up in some shootout-type games where their defense can’t get timely stops. The front seven should be pretty good, but a secondary with three new starters could easily become a fatal flaw. And there are definitely teams on the schedule that will take advantage of that issue. Don’t get me wrong: Baylor will be very good, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it runs away with the Big 12. I just have one too many questions about that secondary.

18. Boise State
I flip-flopped the Broncos with my predicted G6 winner pretty often. Unfortunately, Boise State just missed the cut. The Mountain West is not all that strong this year, and the Broncos do avoid San Jose State, which figures to be a threat to win the league. I still see a few too many spots in the schedule where they could trip up. The trip to Notre Dame in October is safe to chalk up as a loss, but unlike last year, there are other spots where the Broncos are seriously vulnerable. Going all the way to Tampa to play USF is not an easy trip. Appalachian State and UNLV at home aren’t necessarily gimmes, and the conference slate features trips to Air Force and San Diego State. They could still go 10-2 through all that and win the conference, but I don’t think that resume will be better than my eventual G6 champ.

Yes, I wrote that blurb before Boise State played USF. It’s now 31-7 in the fourth quarter. Am I Nostradamus?

First Round Losers

12. James Madison
After much debate and lost sleep, I settled on the Dukes as my G6 champion. The schedule is friendly enough that JMU will be favored in all but one game, but it still mixes in enough difficulty to make a playoff case. It’s tough to have such an important game Week 2, but JMU’s trip to Louisville is massive for this prediction. The Cardinals will be a good ACC team and just missed my ‘Just Missed’ category. If James Madison can go there and lose close or even win, that would be a huge boost to their overall resume. Outside of that game, I don’t see another team on the Dukes’ schedule that is better than them. They will likely have to run the table after Louisville in order to make it here, but I’m betting on Alonza Barnett to have a big year under center and get them there.

11. Texas Tech
I might be buying too much into the off-season hype, but the Red Raiders assembled a roster with just as much talent as any in the Big 12. Losing running back Quinten Joyner to injury is a massive blow, but those in Lubbock are pretty confident about their options to replace him. What makes this a playoff team, however, will be its defense. Tech assembled a very talented group through the transfer portal. New additions Romello Height, David Bailey, Brice Pollock, and Cole Wisniewski will be among the conference’s best at their respective positions. The Red Raiders do have to go to Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State, but I think they can go 2-1 in those three. If they do that, they’ll be in really good shape to make it to the postseason.

10. Indiana
This might surprise some people. I just think Indiana will be substantially better than last year when it made the playoff. Crucially, the Hoosiers made a clear upgrade at quarterback, replacing game-manager Kurtis Rourke with potential game-breaker Fernando Mendoza. Their offensive line stays mostly intact, and I never bet against a Cignetti-coached offense. On the other side, the defense tests out as one of the nation’s best with stars at all three levels. Mikail Kamara, Aiden Fisher, and D’Angelo Ponds are all All-American level players. The visit to Penn State is probably a loss, but I see a schedule chock-full of very winnable games. Even the visit to Eugene is winnable if my doubts about Dante Moore come to fruition. I expect the Hoosiers to pick up right where they left off.

8. Arizona State
I’ll be knocking on wood all season after making this prediction, but I think Sparky will be back in the playoff. The Sun Devils return what might be the best QB-WR duo in the country with Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. I also don’t believe they’ll struggle to replace Cam Skattebo as much as some think. The offensive line is experienced, but I’m hanging my hat on the ASU defense, which projects to return nine starters. The defensive front is as talented as any in the Big 12, and the secondary is vastly experienced. Clayton Smith, CJ Fite, and Xavion Alford, in my opinion, have All-American upside if they stay healthy. The conference schedule does not set up well with trips to Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State on the docket. Similar to Texas Tech, ASU can go 2-1 in those three games and still make it to Arlington. But let’s be real. There’s a 7-5 season incoming after this. My fault.

Quarterfinal Losers

9. Oklahoma
The Sooners’ offense was shambolic last season, so I expect a substantial upgrade under new OC Ben Arbuckle and QB John Mateer. However, the portal addition in Norman that I am most excited about is Jaydn Ott. The former Cal running back is one of the nation’s best. I don’t think his potential impact has been discussed enough. The Sooners also figure to get better receiver play by default given the ridiculously bad injury luck the room had last year. And you can say what you want about Brent Venables as a head coach. I have my doubts as well. But we know for sure that he always coaches up a damn good defense. The schedule is very difficult, but that almost helps the Sooners’ case. Most teams need to go 10-2 to sniff an at-large bid, but with so many difficult spots, 9-3 likely gets them in. Once it gets there, I have Oklahoma beating ASU in a thriller in Tempe.

7. Georgia
I know the quarterback situation is a major question mark, but there is simply too much talent on this roster for it not to be a playoff team. I expect the defense to be nasty as always, and I think the receiving corps will be substantially better. I don’t think Gunner Stockton needs to be great for this team to succeed. He just needs to avoid mistakes. Georgia does play some of the other top SEC teams, but most of its toss-ups come at home, with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas all coming to Athens. Simply put, the Bulldogs are better than Indiana, and they overpower the Hoosiers in the first round.

6. Notre Dame
After a lengthier-than-expected battle, CJ Carr finally won the quarterback job in South Bend. I still don’t think that situation is completely settled, but nonetheless, the Irish bring back a substantial amount of talent from the team that played for the National Championship last year. QB and DT are arguably the only positions on the roster we aren’t sure about. And let’s face it. The schedule is a cake walk for the most part. The Irish do have to go to Miami Week 1 and host Texas A&M week 2. That’s pretty much their entire schedule. Plus, they get a bye between those two games. USC would scare me a bit if it was in Los Angeles, and the trip to Pitt is slightly daunting. However, as long as the Irish at least split those first two, there’s no reason Notre Dame shouldn’t run the table through those final 10 regardless of who is playing quarterback. They overpower Texas Tech in South Bend to open the playoff.

4. Alabama
The Tide could very well be the most talented team in the country. The floor of what this team is capable of is pretty high, but I do think their championship credentials will come down to quarterback play. Is Ty Simpson just okay, or is he great? ‘Just okay’ will be fine enough to get Bama to the playoff, but it’ll need him to be great if it wants to make a deep run. The schedule isn’t exactly easy, but there also isn’t a team there that the Tide should really fear. I’m betting that Simpson is closer to the ‘just okay’ side, and that Alabama loses a close quarterfinal after earning a bye.

Semi-Finalists

5. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are replacing a ton of talent from last year’s champs. Only three starters return on defense, and there are still legitimate question marks over Julian Sayin at quarterback. However, there are many new pieces that are very exciting, and I don’t expect the overall drop-off from 2024 to 2025 to be very steep. Purdue transfer Max Klare figures to be an All American candidate at tight end and an invaluable safety valve for Sayin. Those new pieces won’t have much time to gel with Texas coming to Columbus week one, but if the Buckeyes survive that test, there really aren’t any obvious losses on the schedule. The Penn State is a definitive toss-up, but playing that game at home will help too. Ohio State v. Alabama would be a very intriguing quarterfinal, and I have the Buckeyes winning a close one.

3. Clemson

No other team brings back more production than the Tigers. Cade Klubnik should have all the pieces in place on the outside and up front to be in the Heisman discussion. On the other side, I do recognize the concerns about Clemson’s rush defense which gave up over 160 yards per game on the ground in 2024. I’m betting big on new Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen to make a major difference here. With NFL talent scattered all over his unit, Allen should be able to scheme a stronger defense as a whole. As far as the schedule is concerned, the Tigers probably don’t have to face anyone better than LSU, their Week 1 opponent. If it survives that test at home, Clemson should be solid favorites in the rest of its games. While Notre Dame would pose a stout test in the hypothetical quarterfinal, I think Clemson would be too much.

Runner-Ups

2. Texas
The Longhorns are deservedly one of the favorites to win the title. They return a good portion of an elite defense and brought in quality transfers to fill the holes. If it clicks, that unit is probably the country’s best. On offense, you could argue they are upgrading at quarterback. I’m not as sold on Arch Manning as most, but I also was completely out on Quinn Ewers, so Manning is likely a slight step up in terms of quality. The only real question for Texas is the O-Line, but given Steve Sarkisian’s history at UT churning out top-notch linemen, I expect the Horns to figure it out pretty quickly. The opening trip to Ohio State is certainly difficult, but Texas again will play about as favorable of an SEC draw as you can get. I have the Longhorns winning the SEC and beating Georgia (for the second time) and Clemson en route to the championship game.

National Champion

1. Penn State

Against my better judgement, this just feels like James Franklin’s year. He will never have a more talented or experienced team. Combine that with Ohio State and Michigan bringing in new quarterbacks, and an SEC without a clear front-runner, and you get the perfect storm for the Nittany Lions. While I’m not the biggest Drew Allar believer, this receiving corps is probably the most talented group he’s had to throw to. Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena, and Devonte Ross will each be big contributors there. We know the running backs came back for a chance to win a championship, and that defense is full of top-tier talent. There probably isn’t a better defensive front in the country. Losing Tom Allen is a blow… but they replaced him with defending champ Jim Knowles. It’s all lining up for Penn State, which I believe will win it all.

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