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I’ve been going back and forth for the last week-and-a-half about which team i believe will win the Super Bowl this year, and to be frank, I’m still unsure.
As a result, I’ve devised a method to break down the game step-by-step in order to make my picks. It’s not rocket science, but I figured it was fitting given that the game is in Las Vegas, the Fighting Capital of the World.
Let’s breakdown each position group and score it like a boxing match. Why not? I can tally up the rounds and at least get closer to picking a winner.
Let’s do it.
Quarterbacks
For all his inconsistencies, Brock Purdy has come up big for San Francisco when it matters most. He’s put together big-time drives late in games to help the Niners come back from behind in playoff games, and he’s got some incredible weapons to get the ball to.
However, I worry about his early game struggles, and he makes some awful throws at times. If there was a stat for dropped interceptions, I think Purdy would have the most in the league. The Chiefs are very good at capitalizing on mistakes, so the ill-advised throws could turn into key turnovers.
On the other side, we have Patrick Mahomes. He’s proven time and time again that he’s the best QB in the league, and he isn’t nearly as liable to make mistakes. The fact that he’s taken this sketchy group of skill-position players to the Super Bowl is proof enough.
He’s been excellent in the playoffs at taking what the opposition is giving him and being okay not making the big play all the time, and I give Mahomes a ton of credit for changing his game to adjust for the fact that his team’s strength this year may not be the same as it’s been in the past.
It’s not really a debate, and it’s not close. An easy win for Kansas City.
10-8 Kansas City
Running Backs
I initially thought this would be a breakaway round for San Francisco, but I reconsidered after looking at some Isiah Pacheco tape. He just runs hard and runs angry.
However, I’m not about to give him the edge over one of the league’s most versatile weapons in Christian McCaffrey. He’s the most dynamic player in the game on either side, and if the Niners win, he’ll surely be a big part of it.
I give Pacheco a lot of credit, and I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a solid second option. However, that Niners backfield is just too good.
10-9 San Francisco
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The Niners’ receivers have been the strength of their team all year, and the Chiefs have been incredibly sketchy to say the least.
Let’s compare them player-for-player.
WR1: Deebo Samuel is one of the best in the league, and Rashee Rice shows a lot of promise and breakout potential but has a problem with drops and separating from defenders. Give me Samuel easily.
WR2/Deep Threat: Brandon Aiyuk would be Kansas City’s WR1 if he were on their roster, and Marques Valdes-Scantling has been incredibly inconsistent. Aiyuk by a landslide.
WR3/Slot Option: If the Chiefs sell out to cover the other main options, Jauan Jennings could kill them, too. I’d take him over whoever Kansas City throws out here, whether it’s Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, or Kadarius Toney. Vomit-enducing.
Tight Ends: Here’s the only one where it’s close. George Kittle is incredible, but Travis Kelce has a tendency to just take over games, especially when the lights are brightest. I’m going to take Kelce here, but it doesn’t make a huge impact on this overall group.
Don’t think I forgot about Kyle Juszczyk! Who even is Kansas City’s fullback?
10-8 San Francisco
Offensive Line
Both units are fairly close in terms of their metrics, but keeping plays on schedule will be key in this game for both teams.
The Niners’ unit is carried by Trent Williams, who was PFF’s second-rated left tackle this year. The rest of the unit, however, is pretty average.
On the other side, Kansas City’s line is much more solid across the board. They have a stud of their own at LT in Donovan Smith, and the right side of the line with Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith is solid. Guard Joe Thuney is questionable and hasn’t practiced, which is a big hit, but I still give Kansas City a slight edge given their superior ability across the board. They’ll need it against San Francisco.
10-9 Kansas City
Defensive Line
Don’t get me wrong – Kansas City’s D-Line is very good. George Karlaftis is an absolute stud, and Chris Jones is barely a year removed from sacking his way all the way to a Super Bowl championship.
Nonetheless, it pales in comparison to what San Francisco is throwing out there. Chase Young, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Nick Bosa represent the toughest pass rush Kansas City will face. The only thing keeping this at a 10-9 is that the Niners have been liable to overcommitting to the pass rush, yielding chunk plays on the ground instead.
10-9 San Francisco
Linebackers
I’m a big fan of both sets of linebackers in this game. Willie Gay will be back for the Chiefs, and Nick Bolton is a difference-maker in the middle of the defense. Drue Tranquill deserves some love as well.
That unit is very close to the Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw combo. For the purposes of this game, it’s notable that Warner and Greenlaw will be able to sell out on the run and force the Chiefs’ perimeter skill-position players to make plays. I’m thinking Warner can guard Travis Kelce, too.
It’s close, but San Francisco is slightly better.
10-9 San Francisco
Defensive Backs
This is the true strength of the Chiefs’ defense. If there’s a secondary capable of dealing with all of the Niners’ weapons, it’s one containing L’Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, Mike Edwards, and Trent McDuffie. Deon Bush has come up big off the bench as well. This is one of the league’s best secondaries and a worthy opponent for San Francisco.
On the other side, the 49ers’ weakness on defense has been their secondary for much of the season. They have been liable to give up big plays at times and have struggled against explosive offenses earlier in the playoffs. Talanoa Hufanga is a massive loss for this unit, and it’s one it hasn’t quite figured out how to make up for.
This is a big round for the Chiefs.
10-8 Kansas City
Special Teams
Harrison Butker is one of the most reliable kickers in the league, and Jake Moody has been questionable at best for the Niners. A clear win for Kansas City there that could be a big difference-maker in the game. It wouldn’t shock me if Butker makes a long kick that Moody misses, and if that becomes the difference in the game.
Ray-Ray McCloud and Richie James are both capable returners, so I’d call that side a wash. At this point, I’d also hope that both punters are on top of their games.
Butker gives Kansas City the edge here.
10-9 Kansas City
Results
After eight rounds, we’ve got a 4-4 tie. That doesn’t get me any closer to a pick!
Tallying up all points gets us a 75-74 score in favor of the Chiefs, with the difference being made in the kickers. Those are slim margins to say the least. Truly a split decision.
If it’s this close to even, I have to take the Chiefs with the points and hope it’s truly that close of a game.
I keep coming back to the fact that I’ve tried betting against Patrick Mahomes all year, and he keeps biting me in the ass. I’m not doing it this time.
The Pick: Chiefs +2.5
I’ll take UNDER 47.5 because I expect the Chiefs to try and slow the game down and keep the ball out of San Francisco’s hands.