Photo by Al Bello / Getty Images
First Take is a crazy show. Just for context, this is the verbal shit-salad going on in the background as I write this:
How can I be expected to write an eloquent, thoughtful review of this past weekend’s games when Stephen A. Smith and Shannon Sharpe are double-teaming Dan Orlovsky live on national television?
Let’s just get into the games.
Texans 10, Ravens 34
I felt so good about BOTH of my picks heading into the fourth quarter. It was a 17-10 game, and Texans +9.5 and the under were looking magnificent.
And then Lamar Jackson happened.
The Texans’ defense held up surprisingly well for most of the game, but Lamar completely took over in the second half. He just dealt with whatever Houston threw at him, and single-handedly flipped the game in Baltimore’s favor.
Huge credit should also go to Baltimore OC Todd Monken, whose second-half adjustments freed Lamar to make his own way in the game. The offense felt a little rigid in the first half, but the Texans had no answer for the short-pass-into-Lamar-run plan that Monken rolled out late in the game.
It also helped that Baltimore’s defense kept CJ Stroud out of the end zone entirely. Usually, a punt return TD is a death sentence in a game, but the Ravens held strong and pulled away in the fourth.
Packers 21, 49ers 24
The motto for San Francisco here was just to survive and advance.
The Niners overcame injuries and some shoddy quarterback play to beat a red-hot Packers team that had a 21-14 lead late in the fourth.
I didn’t really think Brock Purdy was all that good, and he very nearly threw a pick six to Darnell Savage early in the game. But when San Francisco needed a drive from him, he came through. Can’t fault him for making it happen when it matters most. I’m still not sold that he’s a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, but we’ll see.
On the other side, Jordan Love struggled as well, turning in his lowest QBR since Green Bay lost to Pittsburgh in November. Huge credit to him for figuring it out and proving that he should be the Packers’ guy for the foreseeable future, but this was clearly a step too far for him at this point.
He tried a Jeter-style running throw against his momentum that ended up being intercepted, crippling any hope of a last-minute drive.
I mean, something’s off if your opponent’s LINEBACKER intercepts you twice in the same game.
Moving forward, I’m worried about how much Deebo Samuel means to the Niners’ offense. Against a Detroit team that has a whiff of destiny to it, Deebo is incredibly important.
Buccaneers 23, Lions 31
Good for Detroit.
The Buccaneers did their best to stay in the game, but the Lions just had too much to overcome. Jared Goff was fantastic again, spreading the ball around to his playmakers and avoiding mistakes.
On the other side, Baker Mayfield had a decent game of his own but made a couple bad throws that led to turnovers. It was in large part the difference in the game.
Going back to Detroit, though, there were so many instances where its skill-position players just overwhelmed Tampa Bay. Sam LaPorta was wide open time after time. Amon-Ra St. Brown was deadly down the field. Jahmyr Gibbs was a threat to score every time he touched the ball.
By the way, that’s an All-Pro that he’s just shaking off to get into the end zone.
I’m a big fan of Detroit’s offense, and I’m curious to see how they go about attacking San Francisco, a defense that is a significant step up from Tampa.
It doesn’t help that I still have major questions about Detroit’s defense. I mean, the Bucs had over 400 yards of offense on the road in a playoff game.
Chiefs 27, Bills 24
Patrick Mahomes just owns Josh Allen and the Bills in the playoffs. Doesn’t matter where they play. If Buffalo plays Kansas City in the playoffs, I’m just picking Mahomes until proven otherwise.
Crucially, it was mostly the Bills’ skill players that made crippling mistakes in key moments. Trent Sherfield had two downfield drops (I’ll give him the diving play late; that’s a tough catch). James Cook let a touchdown slip through his hands. Stefon Diggs dropped an Allen dime that would have at least set up Buffalo for a game-tying field goal.
Crucially, Allen himself came up short on an attempt to Khalil Shakir in the endzone. Sure, he has two three-hundred-pounders bearing down on him, but there’s not enough contact on the throw to affect it that much. In that moment, you’ve gotta stand in and make the throw. I think others, including his opponent on the other sideline, would. Allen didn’t.
Not to mention that Allen became quickly panicked on several plays, including that one, and missed reads and didn’t throw to wide open receivers.
Don’t get me wrong. Allen was good. His stats look much better if you add in those drops. However, in a game of slim margins like this one, the inconsistencies and mistakes in Allen’s game are glaring, especially when you consider that Mahomes didn’t make those same mistakes.
I also don’t understand for the life of me why Buffalo went away from the run game. The Bills were absolutely dominating the Chiefs up front, and Cook and Allen were running wild. I know they fell behind at some points, but in a one-score game with plenty of time on the clock, that line dominance was a chance to take the game by the horns AND keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
Instead, they went to Allen and those receivers in the passing game, which proved to be incredibly inconsistent and liable to make mistakes. I’m convinced that Buffalo wins the game if Joe Brady sticks with the rush. He didn’t.
The bottom line is that the Bills blew this game. Allen was good, but Mahomes was just better, and yet, Buffalo blew several opportunities to put the game away.
I know the missed kick at the end was brutal for Buffalo, but if Mecole Hardman doesn’t fumble through the end zone, the Chiefs go up two scores, and Tyler Bass never gets the chance to kick a tying field goal.
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