Let me be clear from the jump. This isn’t a simple ranking of the best players in baseball. It’s a little more complicated than that.
Bill Simmons writes an NBA Trade Value list a few times per season, and it got me thinking. What if I applied a similar idea to Major League Baseball? The idea is that, if two players are involved in straight-up trade talks, which team would say no faster?
For example, it might surprise you to know I have Adley Rutschman ranked higher than Shohei Ohtani. Does that mean I think Rutschman is a better player than Ohtani? Of course not. But I do know that Rutschman is still on his rookie contract, is only 26 years old, and is projected to produce nearly 6 WAR in 2024.
There’s an important metric to discuss as well: $/WAR. It’s pretty simple. How much money will a team pay per expected WAR in 2024? Rutschman’s $/WAR is $137,931.03, but Ohtani’s comes in near $11,000,000. It’s not exactly rocket science, but it’s a big piece of my consideration nonetheless.
And I know that Ohtani has crazy deferrals in his deal. The Dodgers will still pay that money at some point.
So without further ado, here is my list of the most valuable players in baseball.
BONUS: Young Players Who Haven’t Played Enough to Judge
This group is tough to rank and analyze, but these players deserve some sort of recognition. I fully expect all of these players to make a mark in 2024, and they’ll probably earn spots on the actual list next year. I just don’t have enough information to rank them this year.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age |
| 118 | Marco Luciano | SF | 22 |
| 117 | Nolan Jones | COL | 25 |
| 117 | Marcelo Mayer | BOS | 21 |
| 116 | Alek Thomas | ARI | 23 |
| 116 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 26 |
| 115 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | 21 |
| 114 | Jordan Lawlar | ARI | 21 |
| 113 | Junior Caminero | TB | 20 |
| 112 | Jasson Dominguez | NYY | 21 |
| 111 | Paul Skenes | PIT | 21 |
| 110 | Zach Neto | LAA | 23 |
| 109 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | 25 |
| 108 | Eury Perez | MIA | 20 |
| 107 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | 25 |
| 106 | Dylan Crews | WAS | 21 |
| 105 | James Wood | WAS | 21 |
| 104 | Jackson Chourio | MIL | 19 |
| 103 | Evan Carter | TEX | 21 |
| 102 | Jackson Holliday | BAL | 20 |
| 101 | Wyatt Langford | TEX | 22 |
TIER 11: Ranked, But Barely
The players here should be ranked, but they all have serious flaws at this point in their careers. Adolis Garcia is getting old and strikes out a lot. Walker Buehler is coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. The ceilings here are too high to ignore, but don’t try to tell me I didn’t warn you if things go south.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 100 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 29 | $4,444,444.44 |
| 99 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 27 | $3,520,000.00 |
| 98 | Adolis Garcia | TEX | 30 | $3,333,333.33 |
| 97 | Josh Jung | TEX | 26 | $300,594.00 |
| 96 | Vinnie Pasquantino | TB | 26 | $290,576.92 |
| 95 | Edouard Julien | MIN | 24 | $288,461.54 |
| 94 | Cole Ragans | KC | 26 | $292,307.69 |
| 93 | Reid Detmers | LAA | 24 | $296,153.85 |
| 92 | Anthony Volpe | NYY | 22 | $277,777.78 |
| 91 | Patrick Bailey | SD | 24 | $267,857.14 |
| 90 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | 24 | $275,000.00 |
TIER 10: (Sort of) Young and Hungry
There’s a lot to prove for this group in 2024. Some are playing for contracts. Others need to have big years to explain the hype. Nonetheless, 2024 is massively important for these guys.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 89 | Randy Arozarena | TB | 28 | $2,793,103.45 |
| 88 | Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 28 | $2,333,333.33 |
| 87 | Lars Nootbar | STL | 26 | $262,896.55 |
| 86 | Sonny Gray | STL | 34 | $8,032,258.06 |
| 85 | Jordan Montgomery | FA | 31 | $7,812,500.00 |
| 84 | CJ Abrams | WAS | 23 | $262,068.97 |
| 83 | Steven Kwan | CLE | 26 | $261,137.93 |
| 82 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 29 | $6,612,903.23 |
| 81 | Alejandro Kirk | TOR | 25 | $933,333.33 |
| 80 | Triston Casas | BOS | 24 | $254,000.00 |
| 79 | Riley Greene | DET | 23 | $253,333.33 |
| 78 | Gabriel Moreno | ARI | 24 | $250,666.67 |
| 77 | Willy Adames | MIL | 28 | $3,951,612.90 |
| 76 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | 25 | $250,000.00 |
TIER 9: Expensive but Effective
Classic overpays here. Don’t get me wrong. There’s still a lot of talent here, but past performance is responsible for a lot of the salaries here. As a result, $/WAR is relatively low in this tier.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 75 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | 29 | $4,875,000.00 |
| 74 | Sean Murphy | ATL | 29 | $3,935,483.87 |
| 73 | Luis Arraez | MIA | 26 | $3,312,500.00 |
| 72 | Blake Snell | FA | 31 | $10,606,060.61 |
| 71 | Kodai Senga | NYM | 31 | $4,545,454.55 |
| 70 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | 26 | $3,545,454.55 |
| 69 | Manny Machado | SD | 31 | $8,153,846.15 |
| 68 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 33 | $10,000,000.00 |
| 67 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | 30 | $7,378,378.38 |
| 66 | Carlos Correa | MIN | 29 | $9,794,117.65 |
| 65 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 32 | $9,000,000.00 |
| 64 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 25 | $7,970,588.24 |
| 63 | Luis Castillo | SEA | 31 | $6,352,941.18 |
| 62 | Jung Hoo Lee | SF | 25 | $5,529,411.76 |
| 61 | Zach Eflin | TB | 29 | $3,911,764.71 |
| 60 | Luis Robert | CHW | 26 | $2,441,176.47 |
TIER 8: Surprisingly Cheap
This group is the exact opposite of the previous one. Here, we have a tier that produces quite well and is surprisingly cheap in the process. $/WAR is quite high here.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 59 | Jesus Lozardo | MIA | 26 | $1,666,666.67 |
| 58 | Justin Steele | CHC | 28 | $1,212,121.21 |
| 57 | Jonah Heim | TEX | 28 | $968,750.00 |
| 56 | Matt McLain | CIN | 24 | $234,375.00 |
| 55 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | 22 | $234,375.00 |
| 54 | Max Fried | ATL | 30 | $4,285,714.29 |
| 53 | JP Crawford | SEA | 29 | $2,914,285.71 |
| 52 | Isaac Paredes | TB | 25 | $1,000,000.00 |
| 51 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 27 | $939,393.94 |
| 50 | Andres Gimenez | CLE | 25 | $4,222,222.22 |
| 49 | George Kirby | SEA | 26 | $217,142.86 |
TIER 7: Series Winners
This is a small group, but the players here are capable of, and actually have, turned playoff series on their head. That’s enough to earn them spots here.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 48 | Brandon Nimmo | NYM | 30 | $5,205,128.21 |
| 47 | Trea Turner | PHI | 30 | $7,184,210.53 |
| 46 | Ketel Marte | ARI | 30 | $4,000,000.00 |
| 45 | Xander Bogaerts | SD | 31 | $6,375,000.00 |
| 44 | Bryce Harper | PHI | 31 | $6,350,000.00 |
TIER 6: Cost-Effective Gems
Another small group, but their $/WAR is low enough to make each of them quite valuable on the market. I was shocked putting together the list and seeing how high up these guys were, quite frankly.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 43 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | 27 | $222,857.14 |
| 42 | Austin Riley | ATL | 26 | $5,300,000.00 |
| 41 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | 27 | $3,736,842.11 |
| 40 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 28 | $2,702,702.70 |
TIER 5: Big-Money Superstars
Illustrious careers. Big moments. Large contracts. That’s what these guys are about. They’re getting older, but they’re still quite good and worth most of the $/WAR.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 39 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 33 | $5,850,000.00 |
| 38 | Mike Trout | LAA | 32 | $8,452,380.95 |
| 37 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 30 | $5,857,142.86 |
| 36 | Francisco Lindor | TEX | 30 | $7,418,604.65 |
| 35 | Marcus Semien | TEX | 33 | $5,813,953.49 |
| 34 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 33 | $5,000,000.00 |
| 33 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 34 | $5,488,888.89 |
| 32 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 33 | $5,021,276.60 |
| 31 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 27 | $6,041,666.67 |
TIER 4: Fringe MVPs
If things go right, these guys can creep into the MVP conversation. Very few players would be traded in exchange for this group.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 30 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | 27 | $4,487,804.88 |
| 29 | Logan Webb | SF | 27 | $4,390,243.90 |
| 28 | Matt Olson | ATL | 29 | $4,772,727.27 |
| 27 | Will Smith | LAD | 28 | $2,150,000.00 |
| 26 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 30 | $2,951,219.51 |
| 25 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 27 | $1,282,051.28 |
| 24 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 32 | $1,818,181.82 |
| 23 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 29 | $4,444,444.44 |
| 22 | Corey Seager | TEX | 29 | $6,500,000.00 |
TIER 3: Future Franchise Faces
The title says it all. These are the guys I’m looking for to become the league’s best in the next few years. They’re cheap, young, and incredibly productive. The only reason this ends up as the third-highest tier is the knowledge of the future mega-millions they will be raking in.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 21 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 24 | $4,853,658.54 |
| 20 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | 23 | $5,479,166.67 |
| 19 | Royce Lewis | MIN | 24 | $205,128.21 |
| 18 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 27 | $646,341.46 |
| 17 | Bo Bichette | TOR | 25 | $2,666,666.67 |
| 16 | Michael Harris II | ATL | 22 | $2,093,023.26 |
| 15 | William Contreras | MIL | 26 | $175,000.00 |
| 14 | Corbin Carroll | ARI | 23 | $2,957,446.81 |
| 13 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | 22 | $144,230.77 |
TIER 2: Bonafide Megastars
Just a step off the highest tier, these players don’t need any introduction. We know exactly what they can do, and they’ll be playing important roles in the fall.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 12 | Kyle Tucker | HOU | 27 | $2,500,000.00 |
| 11 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 31 | $3,792,452.83 |
| 10 | Aaron Judge | NYY | 31 | $6,451,612.90 |
| 9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | 25 | $4,418,181.82 |
| 8 | Mookie Betts | LAD | 31 | $4,196,721.31 |
TIER 1: Untouchable
The best of the best. Enough said.
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | $/WAR |
| 7 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 26 | $3,368,421.05 |
| 6 | Juan Soto | NYY | 25 | $4,626,865.67 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 29 | $10,976,190.48 |
| 4 | Julio Rodriguez | SEA | 23 | $3,107,142.86 |
| 3 | Spencer Strider | ATL | 25 | $2,551,020.41 |
| 2 | Adley Rutschman | BAL | 26 | $137,931.03 |
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | ATL | 26 | $1,689,189.19 |
Now, all of this is of course subject to change, and I’ll likely be revisiting during the season. Nonetheless, Ronald Acuna is my most valuable player in terms of trade value, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Rutschman is remarkably cheap given the expected production and marketing value, making him a clear number two.
Ohtani coming in fifth might surprise some people, but he’s unable to pitch this year, and he’s awfully expensive for a DH, no matter how exciting he is.
Oh, and by the way – Happy Opening Day.