Predicting the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft

Iโ€™ll be straight up. I love draft night trades. Thereโ€™s just something about seeing the graphic on the screen flash, indicating an incoming transaction.

Itโ€™s awesome to watch in general, so imagine my pure joy and elation when I watched my Houston Texans take over draft night last year.


So forgive me if Iโ€™m a little trigger-happy on my projected trades in the draft this year. There are just too many teams with incentives to move around, and the board shapes up perfectly for a ton of movement.

I know most of these predicted trades wonโ€™t happen. As a result, Iโ€™ve added trade heat using The Campโ€™s patented ratings system to let you know how likely I think a trade really is at each pick.

Happy drafting!

1.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Caleb Williams, QB
No secrets here or surprises here. Chicago will select the USC superstar as their franchise quarterback.


2.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB

I actually think Drake Maye would be a better longterm solution. However, it seems like Washington has fallen in love with the playmaking and explosiveness that Daniels provides.


3.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Pick: Drake Maye, QB

While there is a good amount of trade buzz, I do think New England ultimately sticks at three and takes Maye. If Washington takes Maye at two, though, watch out. There are a few teams that would undoubtedly sell the house for the chance to get Daniels. Personally, I’m predicting that the Raiders will trade heaven and earth in exchange for this pick in that scenario.


4.

Trade Heat: Inferno

The Trade:

The Pick: JJ McCarthy, QB

Recent indications are that the Giants are pretty desperate to get a quarterback early in the draft. With a front office on the brink of jeopardy, New York could be very motivated to make a massive offer to guarantee the chance to select McCarthy. Arizona could likely move back two spots and still get the receiver they want, so it’s a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Cardinals.


5.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR

If Arizona stays put and selects Harrison, the trade heat probably upgrades to Fire or Inferno. Every quarterback-hungry team will be calling about trading up for McCarthy. However, as I see it happening, McCarthy will be off the board. As a result, I don’t see a reason for Los Angeles not to pick the best player available.


6.

Trade Heat: Inferno

The Trade:

The Pick: Malik Nabers, WR

Arizona would be thrilled if it can come away from draft night with an extra first round pick AND Nabers. The LSU standout has the highest ceiling of any wideout in the draft and would instantly become the Cardinals’ WR1.


7.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Trade:

The Pick: Rome Odunze, WR

On the night it gets a franchise quarterback, I think Chicago will get incredibly bold in an effort to get Caleb Williams some true playmakers. The Bears already have DJ Moore, but the addition of Odunze would upgrade their offense substantially. It makes sense for Tennessee to trade down a couple spots, because they guy they want would likely still be available.


8.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Trade:

The Pick: Brock Bowers, TE

The Jets have made no secret that they want for a legitimate offensive playmaker. Among the top-tier skill-position players, Bowers is the last one left available. Atlanta is in need of defensive help and shouldn’t have any issue moving back a couple spots to get it.


9.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Trade:

The Pick: Joe Alt, OT

Tennessee needs a franchise tackle. That’s no secret. If they can still get Alt while accumulating additional capital, that’s a great result for the Titans.


10.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Trade:

The Pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE

The Falcons will have their pick of the every defensive player, and I think Turner is the best of the crop. Like I’ve suggested for Arizona and Tennessee, getting the player you want on top of additional draft picks is a great result.


11.

Trade Heat: Inferno

The Pick: Laiatu Lanu, EDGE

I have this at an Inferno because the Vikings could very well trade up into the top five for a QB. However, I think they’ll get stuck and out-dueled in negotiations. Still at 11, the Vikings need a Danielle Hunter replacement, and Lanu is the perfect fit.


12.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: JC Latham, OT

Denver is caught in a weird spot here. It needs a quarterback pretty badly, but 12 feels too early to select one. Cincinnati needs a franchise tackle and could be willing to trade up here to get one, and Latham is the best left on the board.


13.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Pick: Troy Fautanu, OG

If Drake Maye goes second to Washington, I expect the Raiders to try and get up to three to draft Jayden Daniels. However, in this mock, they get stuck, not unlike Minnesota. Las Vegas still has some pretty big needs along the interior of the offensive line. Fautanu is easily the best guard on the board, so this wouldn’t be an awful outcome.


14.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Olu Fashanu, OT

It doesn’t really seem like New Orleans is motivated to move from this pick. The Saints have a glaring need at tackle, and Fashanu is the best one remaining. Seems pretty simple to me.


15.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB

The Colts have been closely linked with 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk in the last few weeks, and I’m predicting a trade here. Pick 15 for Aiyuk seems like a realistic deal. Conveniently for San Francisco, its biggest need is at corner, and Mitchell is the best one in this year’s draft.


16.

Trade Heat: Fire

The Pick: Byron Murphy II, DT

Seattle could trade either up or down depending on how the draft goes up until this point. However, I think the Seahawks could stay put and pick Murphy, who some think is the best defensive player in the draft. It may not be as flashy as some Seattle fans may want, but Murphy wouldn’t be a bad pick to come away with.


17.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Pick: Terrion Arnold, CB

Corner is probably Jacksonville’s main need. Between Arnold and Cooper DeJean, the Jags will have their pick of two solid choices. I ultimately think Arnold will be the pick here. However, I have the Jaguars on Embers because they could also make the Aiyuk trade. I edge toward the Colts there because they have a pick two spots higher to offer.


18.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: Bo Nix, QB

Let me preface by saying that I think this would be a massive mistake. However, Sean Payton has been strongly linked with an interest in Nix, and the Broncos would be more willing to make the reach after moving down. I don’t even think Nix is the best signal caller left, but Denver’s interest is too much to ignore.


19.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Jared Verse, EDGE

This could be an absolute steal. The Rams need an Aaron Donald replacement, and Verse is an absolute stud, plain and simple. There’s a slight chance the Rams get frisky with a trade, but I don’t see it happening.


20.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT

Pittsburgh could use an upgrade at tackle, and it would be surprising if Fuaga fell this low. The Steelers would be quite happy to stick here and pick a guy that most people have in the top 15.


21.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR

Whatever hopes Kansas City had for the development of Rashee Rice have been thrown in question after his recent legal issues. As a result, I think Kansas City will be aggressive to try and get a receiver. It’s a close call between Mitchell and Brian Thomas Jr., but I think Mitchell is just a tick stronger as a prospect.


22.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB

Philadelphia needs some help in the secondary, and DeJean was as impressive as any corner in the draft. I’m a fan of DeJean as a prospect, and who doesn’t love a white cornerback?


23.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB,

The Vikings traded with Houston to get to this point, and Penix makes too much sense after Minnesota stuck at 11 initially. Coming out of the night with an elite edge rusher and a high-ceiling QB would be a great result for the Vikings.


24.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Amarius Mims, OT

Could the Cowboys trade down? Possibly, but I don’t think it’s probable. Dallas has an obvious need at tackle, and while Mims doesn’t have a ton of tape at that spot, he’s got the intangible size and strength needed to be successful there.


25.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB

Green Bay could definitely be looking to trade up, which is why I have them on Embers. However, given the other moves here, I expect them to stay put. Corner is a big need for Green Bay, and Wiggins fits the billing.

26.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE

Robinson is raw but massively talented, and Tampa Bay has an obvious hole after Shaq Barrett’s departure. It’s a slightly risky pick, but the Bucs would be happy to leave with a player of Robinson’s potential.


27.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT

This would be a fantastic result for Arizona, who could address two massive needs on night one. Newton is the best interior defensive lineman on the board and would make a fantastic haul for Arizona when combined with Malik Nabers. There’s a whiff of a trade down here but I don’t quite see it.


28.

Trade Heat: Piss On It

The Pick: Brian Thomas Jr., WR

Buffalo would be thrilled if the draft plays out this way in the buildup to their pick. Thomas is a top 20 prospect to a lot of people, and the Bills would take him here in a heartbeat. After losing Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Buffalo is in desperate need of a wideout.


29.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB

McKinstry has been mocked to this spot pretty consistently over the course of the last few weeks. I see a lot of reasons why. McKinstry has a lot of talent, and Detroit’s main glaring need is in the secondary. They could be swayed to take an offer by someone trying to get back into the first round, but the opportunity to address a need is too great.


30.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: Xavier Worthy, WR

The Ravens love a good trade back, and New England’s front office might be looking to make a splash heading into the post-Belichick era. The Patriots can get a true weapon for their new QB, and Worthy is as explosive as they come. New England doesn’t often trade up, but this makes too much sense to me.


31.

Trade Heat: Sparks

The Pick: Xavier Legette, WR

In this mock, the Niners will be fresh off a deal that saw Brandon Aiyuk depart for Indianapolis. San Francisco could get an immediate replacement here with Legette, who has been getting decent first-round buzz recently. San Francisco could trade down here, but I think the Niners will stick here.


32.

Trade Heat: Embers

The Trade:

The Pick: Graham Barton, C

If the Dolphins can come away with additional draft capital and still get Barton, who many consider to be the draft’s best interior offensive lineman, the Dolphins would be ecstatic. That interior is a clear need, and Barton would fill a hole immediately.


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