Here’s the deal with my sports gambling history: It’s spotty at best. I’ve had some big wins and some devastating losses. Some great bets and some stupid ones (for a recent example, check out my preview of last week’s national championship).
In general, The Camp doesn’t have a great track record with its picks. Kyle went on “The Last Brain Cell” and picked TCU on the moneyline against Georgia. I thought they would cover 12.5 points. Plus, we literally just introduced our #FadeBeans series which is designed to make money as long as you pick the opposite of what we do.
Regardless, wild card weekend provides a great opportunity for me to get back on track. All odds are from DraftKings as of 12 p.m. CT on Friday. Let’s have a weekend, shall we?
Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers – O/U 42
A big thing to consider here is the weather: The Bay Area is expecting heavy rain most of Saturday, likely forcing both teams to rely on the run game and some short passes: advantage under.
The 49ers won both regular season meetings by scores of 27-7 and 21-13 respectively. Again, advantage under, but both games were right around that 9.5-point threshold.
In horrid conditions, the 49ers’ run defense should be the difference, ranked second in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 30th in that stat.
Playoff games usually bring the best out of the best teams, and given the weather and the teams’ run defenses, give me San Francisco and the under.
The Pick: 49ers -9.5, U 42
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U 47.5
Whenever these two get together, there are generally a lot of points scored: four of the last five meetings have gone over the 47.5-point total.
A lot has changed for both teams since the Jags demolished the Chargers (in LA) in September. LA won 5 of its last 7 to make the playoffs, and Jacksonville barely beat a banged-up Tennessee team to win the underwhelming AFC South.
The big story here is the playoff debuts of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, and I expect both to air it out.
Herbert will be without one of his main targets in Mike Williams, potentially giving a slight edge to the Jags. However, the Chargers’ pass defense has been a lot better than Jacksonville’s (7th vs. 28th). In a playoff game with high stakes, I expect this to be the difference.
The Pick: Chargers -2.5, O 47.5
Miami Dolphins (+13.5) @ Buffalo Bills – O/U 43.5
Skylar Thompson is starting at quarterback for Miami, which is likely worth anywhere from 7-10 points on this spread. Additionally, one of his primary targets, Jaylen Waddle, will be hobbled even if he does play. Not looking great.
On the other side, the Bills have everything to play for in a wide open AFC. The prospect of finally winning a championship would normally be enough, but now they have a national community of fans seriously rooting for them after everything that happened with Damar Hamlin (thank goodness he’s okay).
Last week against New England, the emotion of the moment seemed to catch up with Buffalo a few times, but they still held on for a comfortable win. In the freezing cold Buffalo winter, I expect the same with a few less points.
The Pick: Bills -13.5, U 43.5
New York Giants (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings – O/U 48
This exact matchup only just happened on Christmas Eve. The Giants had the lead in the second-half and tied the game with two minutes left, only for a 61-yard Greg Joseph bomb to sink them at the buzzer.
There’s something about this Giants team that makes them one of those you really don’t want to see in the playoffs. The Vikings will really have to grind this thing out if they want to advance. Saquon Barkley is as good a runner as they come, and Daniel Jones has been surprising of late (we’ll just call it that).
Minnesota and Kirk Cousins definitely luck out that this is the early kickoff, but I still suspect this one won’t be easy. The Vikings’ defense has been suspect to say the least, leaving them susceptible to New York’s bruising offense.
This to me is the hardest game of the weekend to pick, but I’ve got a gut feeling that the Vikings won’t have it easy.
The Pick: Giants +3, U 48
Baltimore Ravens (+9) @ Cincinnati Bengals – O/U 40.5
The 40.5-point total suggests that Vegas expects Baltimore to try and time-of-possession the Bengals to death, which is an interesting angle. However, the Ravens’ offense loses most of its effectiveness without Lamar Jackson under center.
Without Lamar and with a pretty bad pass defense, I don’t see how the Ravens stop Burrow and Co. I already don’t love that matchup for Baltimore, but without Jackson, the offense will likely lose the ability to keep up.
Even with a modge-podged offensive line, the Bengals should be able to protect Burrow enough to score some points. 40.5 just seems too low to me.
The Pick: Bengals -9, O 40.5
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – O/U 45.5
Dallas didn’t exactly set the world on fire at the end of the season, getting shelled by the Commanders in the finale. Perhaps most concerning was the play of Dak Prescott. Heading into this game, it’s questionable whether he can be trusted not to sink the Cowboys in tight moments.
Tom Brady always has an extra edge to him in these games, so that’s definitely something to consider. There’s a ton at stake for both teams. Brady’s future after this season is obviously murky, as it will be every offseason until he retires. On the other side, Dallas could be motivated to blow up the team if they lose to this Bucs team.
It’s another difficult pick, but I give the edge ultimately to Dallas. The Bucs’ roster is littered with nagging injuries, and Prescott is due for a big playoff performance.
The Pick: (Reluctantly) Cowboys -2.5, O 45.5
Of course, if you really want to make money, you’ll probably be better off just fading everything I picked, but I won’t tell you what to do.
Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges