Here we go again: It’s time to make our picks for the NFL’s divisional playoff weekend. There are some exciting games on the docket, and it would be a real shame if we butchered it by giving out bad bets. Oh well! That’s what we’re good at after all.
All odds are from DraftKings as of 2 p.m. CT on Thursday. Here goes nothing:
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs – O/U 53
It’s supposed to be really cold, rainy, and potentially snowy in Kansas City on Saturday. After last week’s meteorological debacle in San Francisco, I’m not putting too much stock in the forecasts, but it’s at least worth mentioning.
To me, there’s one matchup that really matters here: Kansas City’s 1st-ranked offense versus Jacksonville’s 12th-ranked defense. Mahomes should be able to sling it all over the field on this defense no matter the weather.
Jacksonville’s offense is capable of creating matchup problems with its speed and versatility, so I don’t completely rule them out. They’ll probably move the ball a bit and score some, but it will be too little and too late against Mahomes and company.
I mean, come on. It’s Patrick Mahomes. Are you really going to bet against him getting it done in January?
The Pick: Chiefs -8.5, O 53
New York Giants (+7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles – O/U 48
Who had Daniel Jones having the best playoff debut of all the quarterbacks on their 2023 bingo card? He was fantastic, leading the Giants to a road upset (?) over Minnesota last week.
The Eagles are an entirely different proposition, however. In Philadelphia against a tougher defense, I’m not sure I trust Dimes to get it done here.
In fairness, the Eagles are riddled with injuries, and I am not quite sure what version of them we are getting. I know Jalen Hurts played in the regular season finale, but there are still questions about his health as well as the status of his offensive line.
The line also makes me fairly nervous to bet either way. The 7.5 is just beyond the touchdown mark, and I wouldn’t put it past New York to score a garbage time touchdown to get within that margin.
It’s a tough call, but when all else fails, my playoff rule of thumb is just to bet on the team you think will win and not worry about the spread. I’ll default to that here.
The Pick: Eagles -7.5, O 48
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills – O/U 48.5
It’s pretty hard not to overreact to what we saw from Buffalo’s defense last week. The Dolphins moved the ball pretty comfortably on them, and their offense without Tua is not even in the same realm as what the Bengals have.
Cincinnati also didn’t play great in its first round game against Baltimore, and were probably only a bad Tyler Huntley sneak attempt away from losing outright. Cincinnati’s offensive line is depleted, and I worry about its ability to keep Joe Burrow off his ass on pass attempts.
The spread does seem a little big for two fairly even teams, which might reflect Vegas’ thoughts on the aforementioned O-line situation for the Bengals. However, that could be canceled out by Josh Allen’s continually baffling passing decisions. He’s a brilliant talent but never fails to make four or five really dumb throws per game.
I’ve got a gut feeling about Cincinnati here. They know how to get it done on the road in the playoffs, and Burrow is probably less likely to make crippling mistakes than his counterpart.
The Bengals got to the Super Bowl without an offensive line last year, keep in mind.
The Pick: Bengals +5.5, O 48.5
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers – O/U 46
Alright, San Francisco meteorologists. I’ve got a bone to pick with you. All the talk was about an “atmospheric river” that was going to pour down on the Bay Area all last weekend. Kickoff comes Saturday, and THE SUN IS OUT!? C’mon man!
Nonetheless, San Francisco’s offense simply looks unstoppable right now. Where do you even begin when trying to defend McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and the rest of that unit? Micah Parsons is nice to have, but he isn’t good enough to completely neutralize all those weapons. Nobody is.
Dallas probably feels pretty confident after boat-racing a pretty sad Tampa Bay team that, all told, probably didn’t belong in the playoffs. Dak Prescott looked like an all-pro for the first time in a while, but the 49ers defense isn’t Tampa’s, to say the least.
Kyle Shanahan had Dallas baffled in the playoffs last year, and this reeks of a classic Cowboys let-down. Give me the Niners.
The Pick: 49ers -3.5, O 46
All overs this week, huh? Let it ride!
Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges