America’s favorite sports league is back. The NFL kicks off tomorrow night in Philadelphia, and unlike my college predictions, I’d like to get them out prior to any games being played. That’s kind of the point of pre-season predictions, right?
There never fails to be surprises in the NFL, which is a key factor when making predictions here. Over the course of the last 20 years, only eight playoff teams from the previous season have returned the following year. Using that as a guideline, I automatically have six new teams to put in the postseason and six old ones to kick out. I couldn’t quite get there, but I got close.
Injury luck, rest advantage, bye timing, and so much more have to be considered, but none of that can be predicted at pinpoint accuracy. All that to say… I’m going to be wrong. That’s the fun of this. So, without further ado, it’s time to be wrong again!
AFC East
4. New York Jets
This probably doesn’t come as a major surprise. The Jets’ defense will be pretty good but the offense has the potential to be flat-out dreadful. New York might not be able to throw the ball at all with Justin Fields under center. He’s a fun fantasy option, sure, but fantasy points don’t win games. The Jets could have one of the best defenses in the NFL and it still won’t matter. You still lose if you give up 3 points but score 0.
3. Miami Dolphins
I have the Dolphins on collapse watch. The front seven is really the only thing to get excited about with this team, and there are health concerns there. The secondary looks shaky outside Minkah Fitzpatrick, and the offense? It is one bad hit to Tua away from being among the league’s worst. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike McDaniel is the first coach fired in 2025.
2. New England Patriots*
I am hinging on health with this pick, but I do think this team is the division’s second-best if it stays healthy. I am a big fan of the acquisitions the Pats made on defense, and the offense has real firepower for the first time in a long time. Drake Maye will hopefully take a step forward, and TreVeyon Henderson is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate based on everything we’ve heard from training camp.
1. Buffalo Bills*
Is there any surprise here? With arguably the league’s best quarterback, there isn’t a more definitive player in the division. Allen proved last year that he doesn’t really need standout receivers to break records. The only thing that could realistically sink Buffalo is its defense if it struggles with injuries. Still, Allen could probably carry that unit on his back too.
AFC North
4. Cleveland Browns
Hahahahahahahahaha. This team is going to suck.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
I know Mike Tomlin always has his teams in the hunt and over .500, but I think Aaron Rodgers might just be the one guy that could break that streak. I have no faith in his ability to lead an offense. The addition of DK Metcalf gives Pittsburgh a true number one, sure, but it won’t matter if Rodgers can’t get him the ball. The Steelers will be very good defensively, but this feels ironically similar to Rodgers’s old team in New York. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you can’t score.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The roster is incredibly top-heavy, as has been documented pretty consistently this off-season. No team has a more talented tandem between its QB and receivers. And yet, I still think the Bengals might struggle. I have no faith in the defense outside of Trey Hendrickson, and the offensive line looks to be among one of the league’s worst. Again. By neglecting the line again this offseason, Cincinnati is just begging for another crippling Burrow injury.
1. Baltimore Ravens*
There’s so much to like about this Ravens team. The only real glaring question mark is the kicker, which in fairness could be an issue if Tyler Loop doesn’t pan out. Nonetheless, Lamar Jackson is coming off another MVP-caliber season, the defense will be nasty, and there is real depth at the skill positions on offense. I don’t see a more complete team in the AFC.
AFC South
4. Tennessee Titans
If Cam Ward is good right away, that would probably change things. However, as things stand, I don’t see it at all in Nashville. There is a pretty good amount of solid talent on the team, but the top-end types of guys who win games aren’t really on the roster. Ward could be that guy, but it’s hard to believe he’ll get there in year one.
3. Indianapolis Colts
I mean… what is this quarterback situation? Daniel Jones beat out Anthony Richardson for the starting job, but the Colts still insist Richardson has a future with the team? The defensive front will be downright nasty, but outside of that, is there any position group that you would be overly confident in? I don’t think so. Side note: I think Tyler Warren will be very, very good.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars*
I’m going out on a bit of a limb here, but I think the Jags will be quite improved in 2025. This could be Trevor Lawrence’s last chance to prove he is a franchise-caliber quarterback, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rise up with his back against the wall. It looks like Jacksonville will be starting Travis Hunter at receiver opposite Brian Thomas Jr., which is a fantastic combo. The defense is a major question, but any sort of positive regression from last year would be a positive development.
1. Houston Texans*
There are a lot of rightful questions about the offense, sure. Will CJ Stroud continue to downslide from his rookie year? Can the offensive line protect anything worth a damn? Who is playing running back and the two-through-four receiver spots? I get it. However, I don’t think enough attention has been given to the defense DeMeco Ryans has built, which could be the AFC’s best. Houston has two All-Pro pass-rushers, solid linebackers, and two lockdown corners. I do expect the offense to struggle at times, but there is enough talent there to score enough to win games.
AFC West
4. Las Vegas Raiders
I actually don’t hate the Raiders, but someone has to come in last. Getting a proven head coach and experienced quarterback in the building will do wonders. However, I don’t think there is enough talent, or depth of talent, for Las Vegas to be a consistent winner. Don’t be surprised if they catch some better teams by surprise, though.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
A lot of people expect this team to be right up there in the playoffs again, but I have more concerns than most. The Rashawn Slater injury forces LA to move Joe Alt to left tackle, leaving basically every other spot on the line in limbo. It was a unit that struggled as a whole last year, and when you combine that with a shaky receiver room and a QB I’m not completely sold on, there could be issues. There are disappointments every NFL season, and I have the Chargers down as one of them.
2. Kansas City Chiefs*
I don’t want to be chalky here! I’ve gotta be bold somewhere. I just don’t think the Chiefs care all that much about the regular season. They will be perfectly happy to coast to a playoff spot and then turn it on the playoffs. This is a regular season prediction, you have to remember, and I am not convinced that KC really wants to try that hard when they can make the playoffs in their sleep.
1. Denver Broncos*
Unlike Kansas City, I DO think this is a team that will go all-out to win as many regular season games as it can. Denver had an elite defense last season and only went and upgraded it in the off-season, and I have a ton of faith in the offensive scheme to work around some of Bo Nix’s shortcomings. With new additions at running back, receiver, and tight end, I don’t think the offense will be any worse than it was last year. Will it be great? Probably not. But with the support of that defense, I think Denver is going to be a very difficult team to beat.
NFC East
4. New York Giants
The Giants could be a nuisance to opponents in 2025. The front seven will be downright nightmarish to face, between Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Abdul Carter. However, an elite pass rush is most effective when your opponent has to pass their way back into a game. I don’t see New York’s offense scoring enough points to provide them with those sorts of leads. There is real talent at the skill positions, but the quarterback situation is so shaky. There could be more than one shakeup in that room throughout the season.
3. Washington Commanders
This is purely a mathematical bet on negative regression from last year’s unbelievable run to the NFC Championship Game. I like the Commanders a lot, but they greatly over-performed expectations last year. The schedule will be harder week-to-week, and there’s a non-zero chance Jayden Daniels isn’t quite as good as he was last year. Statistically, that chance is much higher than non-zero given how good he was in 2024. It’s a tough call, but someone has to fall short of expectations.
2. Dallas Cowboys
When everyone else zags one way, sometimes it’s best to zig the other way. The Micah Parsons trade is really bad. I absolutely get that. But as long as they stay healthy, the defense won’t be horrible without him. Kenny Clark is a really good addition in return for Parsons, and there is enough talent overall that I still expect the Cowboys to be at least fairly competent. Where I expect significant improvement is on offense. The addition of George Pickens is substantial because it frees up CeeDee Lamb to play a style that suits him much better. Pickens can take the pure X vertical role. It will miss Parsons, but this is a team that has been pretty consistent when Dak Prescott is healthy.
1. Philadelphia Eagles*
Not much debate here. The defending champs need to replace some veterans in the secondary who have left, but I will always trust Philly’s ability to replace talent with like talent. Not a whole lot else to say other than that I expect this team to run away with the division again.
NFC North
4. Minnesota Vikings
It’s the deepest division in the league, and someone has to finish last. When margins are as tight as they are in the NFC North, below-average QB play could make all the difference. I’m just not confident in JJ McCarthy as a legitimate winner in the NFL. He’s at least a gamer, but he’s never showed me high-end upside as a passer. Maybe I’m still stuck on Michigan’s decision to flat-out stop passing the ball in the second half against Penn State in 2023. Either way, I’m out in Minnesota this year.
3. Chicago Bears
When one falls, another rises, and I expect significant improvement from Chicago in 2025. The Bears offense is littered with high-end playmakers. I can only imagine what sort of tricks and exotic looks new head coach Ben Johnson will have up his sleeve for those guys. The Bears have rebuilt their offensive line, and while the defense doesn’t stand out, it also doesn’t stand out, if you know what I mean. They do get an absolutely brutal schedule, but I think they are equipped for it.
2. Green Bay Packers*
With the addition of Micah Parsons, this defense immediately becomes one of the NFC’s best. Pass rush was a question mark, and Green Bay answered that question emphatically. However, I still have some questions about this secondary, which will be without a proven number one corner. On the other side, the Packers have a million decent receivers, but do they have one elite one? I’m not really sure.
1. Detroit Lions*
Why has everyone been so quick to write off Detroit as a divisional contender this year. This roster still has the bones of the one that went 15-2 last season. While the playoff exit was certainly disappointing, the Lions are still loaded. As long as they can effectively replace Ragnow and Zeitler on the O-Line, this is still one of the NFC’s most well-rounded rosters.
NFC South
4. New Orleans Saints
There’s not much to look forward to in the Crescent City this fall. I hear there’s better football in Baton Rouge.
3. Carolina Panthers
I’m expecting Bryce Young to pick up where he left off last season, and they add a potential true number one in Tetairoa McMillan. However, Carolina’s defense could be among the league’s worst. Even if the offense is significantly improved, the Panthers might not be able to stop anybody. They won’t have much of a pass rush or run push. That’s about as bad a combo as you can have.
2. Atlanta Falcons
This team just feels MEH to me. Bijan Robinson is fun, but the entire rest of the roster just screams MEDIOCRE. The Falcons are making a big bet on Michael Penix being a high-end passer. If that turns out to be correct, Atlanta could be in the playoffs. However, I’m just not completely sold.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
Another division that doesn’t take me a ton of time to pick at the top. Baker Mayfield continues to be criminally underrated as a solidifying force. Although he will be without Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan for extended periods, Baker has made up for talent loss in the past in Tampa. I’m a little concerned about the Bucs’ pass rush, and there are a lot of new faces in the secondary. However, let’s face it. The Bucs shouldn’t have to be amazing to win this lackluster division.
NFC West
4. Seattle Seahawks
This division is another tough call, but just like in the NFC North, someone has to finish last. I expect Seattle’s Mike Macdonald-led defense to be solid at the least. However, there are a lot of new faces on the offense, most notably Sam Darnold. There are also old faces expected to make leaps into more prominent roles, such as Jaxon Smith-Njibga. I’m not convinced that unit can come together quick enough in what will be a very competitive division race.
3. Arizona Cardinals*
Yes, I have the Cardinals in the playoffs. Barely. Arizona comes into 2025 with a completely revamped defensive front. As long as newcomers Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Jordan Burch do their jobs, the Cards will wreak havoc on opponent protections. On offense, Kyler Murray has proven to be a consistent, albeit frustrating at times, quarterback. Marvin Harrison was disappointing last year, but with a full off-season under his belt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come to form in year two.
2. Los Angeles Rams*
This team will be solid as long as Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. With an incredibly talented receiving corps, good running backs, an elite pass rush, and decent talent in the defensive backend, the Rams have all the makings of a high-end Wild Card team at worst. However, that completely changes if Stafford ends up not being healthy. If his back continues to bother him, or if another issue crops up, it could cripple them. They’ll have to at least manage it throughout the season, so they might lose some weird games here and there.
1. San Francisco 49ers*
The Niners had such unbelievably bad injury luck last season. It’s hard to imagine that carrying over to 2025. Robert Saleh is back to coordinate a defense he had great success with earlier in his career, and although they do have to replace a lot of talent, there are All-Pro center-pieces at all three levels. Offensively, I trust Kyle Shanahan to scheme up an offense that will be effective even if injuries become a problem again. Not to mention that San Francisco faces the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.
Playoff Predictions
Based on my predictions, here is where I have the teams slotted:
NFC
1. Eagles (BYE)
4. Buccaneers
5. Packers
3. 49ers
6. Rams
2. Lions
7. Cardinals
This would lead to a second round of:
1. Eagles
5. Packers
2. Lions
3. Rams
I would have the Packers beating the Eagles, and the Lions defeating Los Angeles. In a Packers/Lions NFC Championship, I have the Lions barely getting to the Super Bowl.
AFC
1. Ravens (BYE)
4. Texans
5. Chiefs
3. Broncos
6. Jaguars
2. Bills
7. Patriots
I have that yielding this Divisional Round:
1. Ravens
5. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Broncos
From there, I have the Ravens and Broncos meeting in the AFC Championship. I think Lamar and Co. get it done and get to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl
Lions v. Ravens would be an incredibly fun matchup with tons of firepower on both offenses. Ultimately, I think Lamar Jackson can overcome a stout Lions pass rush and lead Baltimore to another Championship.
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