Four teams remain in the NFL playoffs, and they are all set to play in really interesting conference championship games this weekend.
Last week, my picks were awful. All four games went under, and only two teams covered the spreads I picked. Brutal.
Just do yourself a favor and fade these selections. Lines are current from DraftKings as of Friday morning at 10:30 CT.
NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles – O/U 46.5
As one would expect at this point in the season, this is a difficult game to pick. The Eagles looked fantastic in last week’s murder of the Giants, and the 49ers scraped by the Cowboys, largely due to Dak Prescott’s inability to come through when it mattered.
Sorry Dallas! Had to say it.
The line to me purely comes down to home-field advantage, so a moneyline bet would be better value if you’re on the Niners. However, we’re picking against the spread here.
San Francisco’s combination of elite defense with all the weapons it has on offense is definitely hard to bet against, but the game is in Philadelphia. Lincoln Financial will be rocking as the hometown Birds try to clinch a spot in the Super Bowl.
The game features what are probably the two best defenses in the league, and with both quarterbacks in uncharted playoff waters, I expect a tight and nervy matchup.
Honestly, off-schedule adaptability will likely be a big differentiator for these signal callers, and I trust Jalen Hurts a lot more in that area than Brock Purdy. Hurts has the ability to improvise and escape if need be. Purdy is fairly mobile himself in fairness, but I still give the edge to Hurts.
It’s also notable that the 49ers’ defense is notoriously bad against the quarterback scramble.
What’s more, this is likely the most hostile crowd Purdy has faced so far. He’s been the Niners’ primary quarterback for eight games (seven starts), but only two of those games (at Seattle and at Vegas) were on the road. Seattle isn’t a fun place to play, but Philly in January is a different animal.
Can Purdy handle that?
On top of all that, there’s an edge to this Eagles team that is super important in the playoffs. They seem extremely confident in their ability to beat anyone, which can’t be discounted in a game like this.
Plus, the Niners are planning on playing a guy who just got arrested this week on suspicion of domestic violence. Can’t ride with that.
The Pick: Eagles -2.5, U 46.5
AFC Championship: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs – O/U 47
Right off the top, I’ll let you know: I love the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is putting together an incredible playoff run again, and the defense has been surprisingly good in the playoffs. They are physical and love to knock opponents on their asses.
Like Philadelphia, there is a “screw you” element to Cincinnati too. For some reason, they are convinced that nobody believes in them and that the league doesn’t want them in the Super Bowl. The latter is probably true, but a lot of people believe they can beat Kansas City this week.
Side comment: Every playoff team pre-sells tickets for playoff games. Dallas did it. Buffalo did it. The whole neutral site Atlanta thing that Cincinnati got bent out of shape about is standard logistical practice for that situation. If the Bengals needed that to get pumped for the playoffs, that’s fine, but don’t act all surprised about the NFL simply doing its job.
Anyway, carrying on…
The other thing that slants in Cincinnati’s favor is Patrick Mahomes’s status. There’s no denying that the Chiefs’ offense is completely different when his mobility is limited. The Chiefs have said all week that he’s good to go, but I don’t know how it doesn’t have any effect on him this weekend.
At the very least, it might be a mental block.
Travis Kelce will have to have a massive game for the Chiefs to have a chance. It could happen, and Andy Reid will certainly game plan all he can to get him open, but the Bengals have to zero in on him as Kansas City’s offensive focal point.
Welcome to Burrowhead.
The Pick: Bengals +1.5, O 47
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