Full disclosure heading into the NCAA Tournament. I started paying attention to college basketball the same time as everyone else – when the calendar turned to March.
Do I know that much about these teams? No. Am I expert by any means on any of this? Definitely not. Did I place bets on the vast majority of the Round of 64?
It’s been a lot to digest in such a short period of time, but here’s my evaluation of the field. It probably seems crazy to make predictions after paying attention for two weeks, but it is madness, after all.
Teams That Can Win It All
Houston
Kelvin Sampson is rolling a historically good defense into the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars force turnovers over a fifth of the time, a rate that only gets amplified given the relative few possessions available in a Houston game. Houston also leads the country in block rate. The bottom line is that they are very hard to score against.
In the NCAA Tournament, smothering teams in this manner can be the driver behind a deep run. Houston isn’t even all that special on the offensive end, but Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer can provide enough scoring to pull the Cougars away on the scoreboard.
A few teams in Houston’s region, such as James Madison or Florida, could try to out-pace them. This could keep games close, but in reality, I only really see Marquette as a legitimate threat to keep the Cougars from getting to Phoenix.
UConn
Under most estimations, UConn has been the nation’s best team for the majority of the season. Any list of potential national champions would be incomplete without the Huskies.
Like Houston, UConn prefers to slow the pace and limit possessions. They don’t force turnovers like Houston, but they do have more offensive firepower. The Huskies have the nation’s highest offensive rating with five players averaging double figures.
Fresh off his selection to the All-America First Team, I expect Tristen Newton to be a massive force in this year’s NCAA Tournament. With him leading the way, the Huskies have a great chance to repeat as champs.
Iowa State
To be honest, I don’t know a whole lot about the Cyclones. However, I do know that they force turnovers at an even higher rate than Houston.
Additionally, some of Iowa State’s recent performances have been incredibly impressive. They just beat Houston by 28 and Baylor by 14 in the conference tournament. The Cyclones are peaking at the right time, and coming in hot can be incredibly valuable in the NCAA Tournament.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Cyclones make a deep run. Sometimes, a team just needs to get hot at the right time, and Iowa State might just be that team.
Purdue
Look – I’m not all that confident in the Boilermakers given their recent tournament performance. In the last three seasons, Purdue has lost in the first round to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, 15-seed St. Peter’s, and 13-seed North Texas. That doesn’t help their case one bit.
Nonetheless, Purdue has something no other team has: Zach Edey. Edey is capable of single-handedly taking games over. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Edey put up monster numbers throughout the NCAA Tournament and make up for the terrible losses that have plagued his career up to this point.
At the end of the day, I don’t particularly expect Purdue to win it all, but Edey could potentially carry them there.
Auburn
This is another team coming into the NCAA Tournament smoking hot. Fresh off winning the SEC Tournament, the Tigers have won six in a row.
Auburn plays with decent pace and does a decent job of limiting turnovers – a good formula for a potentially deep run.
The Tigers will have to overcome two other teams on this list – Iowa State and UConn, to get to Phoenix, but they are plenty capable. I’ll tell you one thing: The Cyclones and Tigers in the Elite Eight would be an incredibly fun game.
Teams Liable for an Early Exit
Arizona
Like Purdue, Arizona has been historically upset prone in the NCAA Tournament. However, they don’t have Zach Edey.
The Wildcats also have a tendency to play too quickly for their own good. If they start missing shots, they are incredibly vulnerable.
Don’t get me wrong. Caleb Love has immense tournament experience, and Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson are due for deep runs. I still don’t quite trust it fully, especially given Arizona’s tournament history.
There are also some tough teams in their quadrant. Nevada and New Mexico are underseeded, and Baylor could be a tough out. In the end, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Arizona to get far.
Alabama
The Tide are a more extreme version of Arizona, playing at an extremely high pace. When Alabama makes shots, they are incredibly hard to beat. However, if the Crimson Tide get cold, they become quite vulnerable.
Charleston isn’t an easy 13-seed draw, but the prospect of a St. Mary’s matchup in the second round should be incredibly scary for Alabama fans. The Gaels will do their best to choke the Tide’s offense into submission. Given their track record, they would have a high probability of success.
Alabama better hope Grand Canyon comes up with an upset. That’s all I’ll say.
Kentucky
By now, you should be noticing a pattern. I don’t love the prospects for teams that play too fast. These squads are highly liable to play themselves out of games rather than being beaten. In single elimination, one bad shooting night is all that’s required to sink these teams.
Kentucky plays just as fast as Alabama and Arizona. To their credit, the Wildcats are very efficient offensively to match that pace.
However, it would be generous to call the Wildcats’ defense a liability. It is downright bad. The Wildcats allow nearly 80 points per game on average, ranking 336th in the country. There are only 351 qualifying teams, by the way.
Sure, the Wildcats can run with the best of them, but they will surely lose if they get cold on offense.
Kansas
The Jayhawks were on upset alert before their best player was ruled out of the NCAA Tournament. Now, I think there’s a decent chance they won’t even survive this week.
Kevin McCullar Jr. is awfully important to the Jayhawks, and they’ll mightily miss his 18 points, six assists, and four rebounds. Kansas will have to make up that production to be successful, and I just don’t see it happening. It’s that simple.
Teams on Cinderella Watch
I’ll quick-fire through these. I’ve put you through enough of my BS writing already.
James Madison
Isn’t this the same team that didn’t lose a game until after the new year? Yeah, I’ll roll with them. If the Dukes beat Wisconsin in the first round, watch out.
McNeese
Will Wade is only coaching this team because of his spotty past at power schools. I’m not arguing that he doesn’t deserve it, but he’s still built a power-style program. He has legitimate depth and size on his team. We’ll see if he can put it to good use against Gonzaga.
Samford
The same high pace that sinks top seeds is what makes Samford such an attractive Cinderella candidate. This boom-or-bust proposition, when it booms, is a huge driver behind upsets.
Achor Achor is the real deal, and you could make a legitimate argument that he is the best player on the floor in their opening game against Kansas. An upset wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.
NC State
The red-hot index is strong with the Wolfpack. DJ Burns Jr. electrified the country as he carried his team to an ACC tourney title, and we’ll see if he can stay on this heater.
Ultimately, this team has players with NCAA Tournament experience, and they are battle tested of late against tough opponents.
I’d also love to see DJ Horne pull this off again in the tournament:
New Mexico
The Lobos are just a fun watch, plain and simple. As much as I hated him in his Arizona State days, Jaelen House has been terrific, and the rest of the roster has followed suit. They are very aggressive in terms of pace, making them a decent shout to catch teams off-guard.
New Mexico is also the most under-seeded team in the tournament, so I guess it would be a bit of a stretch to call this a Cinderella situation. Cinderella-lite?
This is by no means an end-all summary of what’s about to happen in the NCAA Tournament. Knowing my luck, Houston and UConn will exit early, Samford will lose by 20-plus to Kansas, and Arizona will win it all.
It doesn’t make the madness any less fun.
Comments
One response to “It’s here: Who can win the 2024 NCAA Tournament?”
[…] win. Nonetheless, we’re here now, and I couldn’t be more excited.By the way, remember when I put the Wolfpack on Cinderella Watch headed into the tournament? Yeah, I had some misses, but that pick was a big hit.Anyway, I’m all […]