Imavov vs. Strickland

The first event of 2023 will take place on Saturday, January 14, at the UFC Apex, when the UFC resumes competition after the holiday break. Sean Strickland climbs up last minute to fight Nassourdine Imavov at light heavyweight in the main event. 

In the first iteration of my new gambling segment, I’ll list the expert pick and my preferred play, and give a brief analysis of each opportunity. All odds are current and come from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my four picks for the card. 

Punahele Soriano (-155) vs. Roman Kopylov (+135)

What the experts are saying: Punahele Soriano -155

Beans’ pick: Roman Kopylov +135 

In principle, Soriano and Kopylov are comparable. Both of them are 9-2. Both are coming off KO wins, but have lost two of their previous three fights. However, they are different fighters without question.

Here’s the thing: Puna is a great wrestler, and a very powerful striker, while Roman is a dynamic attacker, but struggles on the ground. Puna’s center of gravity is bulletproof, while Roman is tall and lanky. They actually couldn’t look more different standing across from each other. 

But Roman’s most recent win was over seasoned veteran Alessio Di Chirico while Puna’s was over Dalcha Lungiambula, a guy who was skidding heavily and is no longer even in the UFC. 

If you’re a data person (and know what this stuff means), Kopylov averages 3.44 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, compared to 47% for Soriano. None of this matters, though, because Roman has insane range and diversity in his strikes. Puna is going to try and wrestle. At +135, there is serious value there. I think Roman will surprise Puna (and everybody else) if he catches him with a head kick or defends well against the takedowns from Soriano.  

This weekend, bet for Roman to make a statement. 

Javid Basharat (-315) vs. Mateus Mendonca (+260)

What the experts are saying: Javid Basharat -315

Beans’ pick: Javid Basharat -315

If it wasn’t financially irresponsible I’d bet my entire 401K on Javid Basharat (do not bet your 401K on anything). Watching him fight for the first time several months ago made me an instant fan. Since joining the UFC after making a statement on the Contender Series, he’s already put two tough Bantamweight vets away via UD. I mean for god sake his fighter nickname is “Snow Leopard”. How cool is that?!

Seriously though, this guy is a problem. He’s tough as nails, extremely athletic, and possesses absurd stamina. He’s one of those fighters that you know will be a sensation in the Bantamweight division, potentially even champion someday. 

However, Mateus Mendonça is no slouch. He hasn’t suffered a loss in his MMA career either. Less than four months ago, he made his UFC debut, finishing Ashiek Ajim in the first round in just 48 seconds. With that victory, Mendonça grabbed his third win by KO/TKO in his previous four fights. 

Still, this is Snow Leopard’s night for sure. Automatic money. 

Charles Johnson (-340) vs. Jimmy Flick (+280)

What the experts are saying: Jimmy Flick +280

Beans’ pick: Jimmy Flick +280

I agree with the various writers I’ve seen vouch for Flick. This is an insane value play if you know him. Honestly, I think -340 for Johnson is one of the most egregious traps I’ve ever seen. Simply put: I haven’t been impressed by Johnson.

Jimmy Flick has won all four of his most recent fights via submission. He has a perfect 2-0 record in the UFC so far, solidifying himself in the flyweight class by submitting Cody Durden at UFC Vegas 17 with a flying triangle choke.

Flick is flawless in the UFC, whereas Johnson isn’t. The only issue with Jimmy is the fact that we haven’t seen him in more than two years. But again, Johnson hasn’t looked particularly strong lately, and if you watched his most recent “win” over Zhalgas Zhumagulov, he most certainly lost: the judges botched that one. 

So Flick is the play, and if you want to get crazy, bet on him winning by KO/TKO at +1600. 

Nassourdine Imavov (-120) vs. Sean Strickland (+100)

What the experts are saying: Sean Strickland (+100)

Beans’ pick: Nassourdine Imavov (-120)

Like a freight train with a few screws loose burning the midnight oil, Sean Strickland is about to enter the fray. He is the first UFC fighter to compete in back-to-back main events since Tito Ortiz in UFC 29 and UFC 30. Strickland’s opponent, Nassourdine Imavov enters with a three-fight winning streak and hopes to improve his No. 12 ranking with a victory.

Strickland is coming off a split-decision loss to Jared Cannonier and will try to make a statement to start the new year after displaying obvious displeasure with his performance in December. The No. 7 ranked middleweight is currently on a two-fight losing streak, and this would be his fourth career main event. 

This main event is the largest challenge of Imavov’s career by far. The only thing uncertain about him is his cardio. But he’s a rising prospect with unknown potential–and we saw greatness from him at UFC Paris in September of 2022. He has the upper hand over Strickland because of his precise striking, which he combines with elbows, knees, and mobility. He’s also MUCH more athletic. I think his movement will be a huge issue for Strickland who tends to stand directly in front of his opponents. 

The only thing that can stop Imavov is his gas tank. 

I think Nassourdine delivers a quality performance and takes the win.

#FadeBeans and #NoParlays 

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