The CFP committee has spoken clearly through its latest rankings release, and the message is clear.
Conference affiliation means more than on-field results. Brand is more important than tangible evidence gathered from actual games.
Except… the committee almost got there.
By wedging Miami between Alabama and the other three-loss SEC hopefuls, the selection committee simultaneously made a statement and also tripped over said statement.
If 9-3 Alabama is ahead of 10-2 Miami due to its quality of wins and conference strength, shouldn’t 9-3 Ole Miss and 9-3 South Carolina both also be ahead of Miami?
By the Alabama-over-Miami logic, Ole Miss’s best win is over the same team as Alabama’s, and South Carolina’s best win is still better than Miami’s. If you’re going to put Alabama over Miami, the same logic should apply to Ole Miss and South Carolina. And yet, it doesn’t, because there’s likely something much more sinister going on. I’ll get into that later.
Going all the way back to the very first playoff a decade ago, these logical failings have marred the Playoff era. There are a few more to explore this week, so let’s get into it.
1. Oregon 
12-0
Best Wins: 32-31 v. #6 Ohio State, 37-34 v. #10 Boise State, 38-9 v. #21 Illinois
Losses: None
Respectfully, I agree. The Ducks are the only FBS team that went 12-0 in the 2024 regular season. There were certainly some bumps along the way (hello, Wisconsin), but Oregon is still undefeated with two wins over current top 10 teams. If it can add a third this weekend, Oregon will be the undisputed number one seed in the playoff.
2. Texas 
11-1
Best Wins: 17-7 @ Texas A&M, 31-12 @ Michigan, 20-10 @ Arkansas
Losses: 15-30 v. #5 Georgia
Respectfully, I agree. The Longhorns took a practical and professional approach to their cruise to victory in Aggieland, and with a chance to avenge its only loss, Texas is in great position. We can whine about strength of schedule or inconsistent offense, but there is clearly no one-loss team you can put here over the Horns.
3. Penn State 
11-1
Best Wins: 21-7 v. #21 Illinois, 26-25 @ Minnesota, 33-30 @ USC
Losses: 13-20 v. #6 Ohio State
Respectfully, I agree. By default. The Nittany Lions move up to three on the coattails of other failures around the country. With the exception of its loss to Ohio State, Penn State has simply survived and advanced. I am deeply suspicious of it as a legitimate title contender, but for now, Penn State is fine at three.
4. Notre Dame 
11-1
Best Wins: 23-13 @ Texas A&M, 49-14 v. #24 Army (N), 31-13 @ Georgia Tech
Losses: 14-16 v. Northern Illinois
Respectfully, I agree. Another default placement here. Where else can you realistically put Notre Dame at this point. Even if the one loss is horrible, it’s still only one loss. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Irish get upset at home in the first round, however.
5. Georgia 
10-2
Best Wins: 30-15 @ #2 Texas, 31-17 v. #7 Tennessee, 34-3 v. #17 Clemson (N)
Losses: 34-41 @ #11 Alabama, 10-28 @ #13 Ole Miss
Respectully, I agree. Of the two-loss teams, Georgia should be ranked highest. The dominant wins over Texas and Tennessee speak for themselves. But, man, we were so close to seeing the SEC fall into a real pickle. Georgia losing at home to a middle-of-the-road ACC team would’ve dismantled a lot of the narrative built around the SEC this year. I still don’t think the conference deserves the credit we collectively give it in 2024. Nonetheless, Georgia escaped against Georgia Tech with a win and has a chance to win its way into the quarterfinals with a second win over Texas. Go for two, Brent Key, you coward!!
6. Ohio State 
10-2
Best Wins: 20-13 @ #3 Penn State, 38-15 v. #9 Indiana, 35-7 v. Iowa
Losses: 31-32 @ #1 Oregon, 10-13 v. Michigan
Disrespectfully, I disagree. I would have preferred to see the Buckeyes drop back to eight right in front of Indiana. Losing at home to the worst Michigan team since pre-COVID should be a bigger deal than the committee thought it was. The manner of that loss, in which Ryan Day’s brain got twisted in more knots than a 100-yard long rope, is incredibly alarming. And yet, I still think this team could win the title. It should still get a sterner punishment for a horrible late-season loss.
7. Tennessee 
10-2
Best Wins: 24-17 v. #11 Alabama, 36-23 @ Vanderbilt, 51-10 v. NC State (N)
Losses: 14-19 @ Arkansas, 17-31 @ #5 Georgia
Disrespectfully, I disagree. Tennessee should be ranked ahead of Ohio State. That’s my qualm here. Tennessee has a similar loss to a comparable team, but at least the Volunteers were on the road when it happened, and it wasn’t in one of college football’s most iconic matchups. I was impressed with how the Volunteers handled a frisky Vanderbilt team on rivalry weekend as well. It’s a small matter of difference, but I still disagree with this placement.
8. SMU 
11-1
Best Wins: 34-27 @ Louisville, 66-42 v. TCU, 48-25 v. Pitt
Losses: 15-18 v. #18 BYU
Disrespectfully, I disagree, again, with the Ohio State placement. The Mustangs should be one spot farther up with the Buckeyes behind them. Again, it’s not a big dispute, but a dispute nonetheless. It’s interesting as well that the blanket assumption about SMU is that it hasn’t played anybody, but the profile of its wins actually looks decent in hindsight. TCU finished 8-4, Louisville beat Clemson, and Duke ended up 9-3. All respectable wins, even if the Ponies had to overcome six turnovers and block a game-winning field goal in one of them.
9. Indiana 
11-1
Best Wins: 56-7 v. Nebraska, 31-17 v. Washington, 20-15 v. Michigan
Losses: 15-38 @ #6 Ohio State
Respectfully, I agree. The Hoosiers are 11-1 without a real signature win, and their loss was the only game on their schedule against a currently-ranked team. 11-1 in the Big 10 is still 11-1 in the Big 10, so Indiana should be a deserved at-large participant in the playoff when all is said and done.
10. Boise State 
11-1
Best Wins: 29-24 @ #20 UNLV, 45-24 v. Washington State, 42-21 @ San Jose State
Losses: 34-37 @ #1 Oregon
Disrespectfully, I disagree. I get that the Broncos have a bonafide Heisman candidate (who should win it, by the way), and that the one loss is about as high-quality as it gets, but I still don’t understand why a G5 team, particularly this one, should get the nod over a two-loss Big 12 champ. The same logic the committee used to propel Georgia and Tennessee over Indiana has essentially been ignored in this case. If conference strength matters as much as it appears, Boise State shouldn’t be ranked ahead of any of the teams directly behind it. Plus, the Broncos didn’t even play the third or fourth-best ranked teams in its conference.
11. Alabama 
9-3
Best Wins: 41-34 v. #5 Georgia, 27-25 v. #14 South Carolina, 34-0 v. #19 Missouri
Losses: 35-40 @ Vanderbilt, 17-24 @ #7 Tennessee, 3-24 @ Oklahoma
Disrespectfully, I disagree. Losing by 24 against a 6-6 team has to mean something. Two losses in total to 6-6 teams have to matter. The committee has excused all that in favor of brand recognition and ESPN’s satisfaction. Alabama getting in is good for business. That’s what’s going on here. If you’re going to make the blanket argument that 9-3 in the SEC is more impressive than 10-2 elsewhere, fine. But why then is Miami all of a sudden wedged between three 9-3 SEC teams? I’ve believed for weeks that, given any excuse or opportunity, this committee would do what it could to get Alabama into the playoff, and they’ve done it. Miami at 10-2 really shouldn’t be behind this Alabama team, but if its going to be, there’s absolutely no explanation for why the Hurricanes simultaneously land ahead of Ole Miss and South Carolina.
12. Miami 
10-2
Best Wins: 52-45 @ Louisville, 53-31 v. Duke, 41-17 @ Florida
Losses: 23-28 @ Georgia Tech, 38-42 @ #22 Syracuse
I disrespectfully disagree. As I’ve already said, this is the least logical spot for the Canes to land. Either make the SEC statement and put them behind Ole Miss and South Carolina, or correctly adjudicate Alabama’s brutal losses and leave Miami in ahead of that trio. Miami has simply been used as a vehicle for the committee’s ultimate goal of getting that crimson A in the playoff. That’s it. Just a disgrace.
13. Ole Miss 
9-3
Best Wins: 28-10 v. #5 Georgia, 27-3 @ #14 South Carolina, 63-41 @ Arkansas
Losses: 17-20 v. Kentucky, 26-29 @ LSU, 17-24 @ Florida
Respectfully, I agree. If we’re basing this off the wildly ridiculous notion that we’re putting Alabama at 11 and Miami at 12, Ole Miss should be here. Three losses to unranked teams will do that to you. The top-end wins are impressive and keep the Rebels above South Carolina, but their shortcomings against otherwise mediocre teams left them without a real chance at making the playoff.
14. South Carolina 
9-3
Best Wins: 17-14 @ #17 Clemson, 44-20 v. Texas A&M, 34-30 v. #19 Missouri
Losses: 33-36 v. LSU, 3-27 v. #13 Ole Miss, 25-27 @ #11 Alabama
Respectfully, I agree. The Gamecocks are playing about as well as anyone right now. LaNorris Sellers is a rising star, and their defense is as good as any in the SEC. With all that in mind, I still don’t think South Carolina can have any argument about its placement here. It has head-to-head losses against two teams ahead of them in the rankings, and while the Clemson win is impressive, Ole Miss and Alabama both have victories over Georgia. It’s unfortunate and unlucky, but this is right where the Gamecocks belong.
15. Arizona State
10-2
Best Wins: 28-23 v. #18 BYU, 24-14 @ Kansas State, 31-28 @ Texas State
Losses: 22-30 @ Texas Tech, 14-24 @ Cincinnati
I disrespectfully disagree that the highest-ranked Big 12 teams should be placed behind Boise State. As I said earlier, Boise State did not play the third or fourth-highest ranked Mountain West teams, and it hasn’t looked great in the last month or so. The Sun Devils don’t have the greatest resume either, but the Kansas State and BYU wins are both just as impressive as Boise’s UNLV win. Navigating a Big 12 schedule and going 10-2 is just harder than going 11-1 in a down Mountain West. It just is.
16. Iowa State 
10-2
Best Wins: 43-21 v. Baylor, 20-19 @ Iowa, 29-21 v. Kansas State
Losses: 22-23 v. Texas Tech, 36-45 @ Kansas
I disrespectfully disagree. Just substitute Iowa State’s resume for that of Arizona State. 10-2 in a very open and balanced Big 12, no matter the opponents, is an accomplishment worth rewarding. If the Big 12 champ ends up ranked behind Boise, it will be just the latest in a long line of logical failings and hypocrisy by the committee.
17. Clemson 
9-3
Best Wins: 24-20 @ Pitt, 24-14 @ Virginia Tech, 59-35 @ NC State
Losses: 3-34 v. #10 Georgia (N), 21-33 v. Louisville, 14-17 v. #14 South Carolina
I disrespectfully disagree. The Tigers are floating on top of their brand to be ranked ahead of other two-loss teams. What has Clemson done this year? It has only played three games against teams with more than eight wins, and it lost all three. I’m hoping SMU ends Clemson once and for all so that we can stop pretending this team is relevant in 2024.
18. BYU 
10-2
Best Wins: 18-15 @ #8 SMU, 38-9 V. Kansas State, 37-24 @ UCF
Losses: 13-17 v. Kansas, 23-28 @ #15 Arizona State
I disrespectfully disagree. What the committee is doing to the Cougars is just criminal. Their resume is better than several teams ranked ahead of them. ESPN’s recent blind resume test (ironically) proved it. It’s a case of one conference being heavily devalued in comparison to the others. BYU gets penalized for that XII on its chest, and that’s all there is to it.
19. Missouri 
9-3
Best Wins: 28-21 v. Arkansas, 30-27 v. Vanderbilt, 27-21 v. Boston College
Losses: 10-41 @ Texas A&M, 0-34 @ #11 Alabama, 30-34 @ #14 South Carolina
Respectfully, I agree. I guess. There comes a time when a man has to retire a take. I’m going to retire my take that Missouri shouldn’t be ranked. Not because Missouri is any good, but because we’ve simply run out of teams. 9-3 in the SEC should be ranked. That’s that.
20. UNLV 
10-2
Best Wins: 23-20 @ Kansas, 27-7 @ Houston, 59-14 v. Fresno State
Losses: 41-44 v. Syracuse, 24-29 v. #12 Boise State
I disrespectfully disagree that a 10-2 Mountain West team should be ranked ahead of a 9-3 ACC squad with a head-to-head win. Syracuse should be in this spot. Other than that, I have no issue with the Rebels being ranked. The Mountain West championship is win-and-in, so a one-spot ranking disparity is fairly irrelevant.
21. Illinois 
9-3
Best Wins: 21-7 v. Michigan, 23-17 v. Kansas, 38-31 @ Rutgers
Losses: 7-21 @ #3 Penn State, 9-38 @ #1 Oregon, 25-17 v. Minnesota
Respectfully, I agree. Illinois is 9-3. Its resume isn’t really all that impressive, but its losses are all very respectable. The Illini have been in and out of the rankings/polls all season, so the twenties feel like the perfect spot for them to end up.
22. Syracuse 
9-3
Best Wins: 42-38 v. #12 Miami, 44-41 @ #20 UNLV, 31-28 v. Georgia Tech
Losses: 24-26 v. Stanford, 13-41 @ Pitt, 31-37 @ Boston College
I disrespectfully disagree. Move the Orange up a couple spots! Coming off a stunning comeback against Miami, Syracuse is clearly a different team than the one that lost to Stanford and Pitt earlier. Just off resume and conference strength, logic would pretty clearly dictate the Orange should be up around 20.
23. Colorado 
9-3
Best Wins: 41-27 @ Texas Tech, 38-31 v. Baylor, 49-24 v. Utah
Losses: 10-28 @ Nebraska, 28-31 v. Kansas State, 21-37 @ Kansas
Respectfully, I agree. Again, we’re running out of teams to rank. Colorado has the star-power necessary to fend off challenges from other teams around it. At least, that’s how the committee views it. God forbid the Heisman winner doesn’t appear in the committee’s rankings. Why is Travis Hunter the Heisman winner?
24. Army 
10-1
Best Wins: 14-3 @ North Texas, 20-3 v. Air Force, 45-28 v. East Carolina
Losses: 14-49 v. #4 Notre Dame (N)
Respectfully, I agree. Is Army a good team? I don’t know. Is it just in the rankings to prop up Notre Dame? Probably. But damn it, the troops are 10-1. Put ’em in! Winning the American would be an unreal outcome regardless of Army’s playoff hopes.
25. Memphis 
10-2
Best Wins: 34-24 @ Tulane, 53-18 v. UAB, 21-3 @ South Florida
Losses: 44-56 @ Navy, 36-44 @ UTSA
Respectfully, I agree. Whatever. How many more 10-2 teams do we have? The Tigers’ win over Tulane earns them a spot in the backdoor of the committee’s penultimate rankings. Congratulations.
If I had it completely my way, with a common-sense balance between eye test and results, here’s what the rankings should look like:
- Oregon
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- SMU
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Miami
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State
- Iowa State
- BYU
- Boise State
- Missouri
- Clemson
- Syracuse
- UNLV
- Illinois
- Colorado
- Army
- Memphis
In these rankings, Oregon, Texas, SMU, and Arizona State would receive first-round byes. Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State, Indiana, Miami, and Boise State would fill the rest of the field.
Seems pretty fair to me! Get Alabama out of here, man.
You can follow Nick Hedges on X @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges