As predicted, Week Two of college football did not disappoint despite the relatively lackluster slate. Four ranked teams lost, and quite a few schools categorized themselves as contenders, pretenders, or just flat-out failures.
Let’s discuss the state of things after the second week of the season.
Florida is not a playoff team
I was happy to short Florida’s playoff chances heading into the season. With a brutal schedule and a young quarterback battling injuries throughout camp, I didn’t think the Gators would put the run together this season. However, even I didn’t think the wheels would start to fall off this fast.
There really shouldn’t be a scenario where a Florida team this talented draws even on the field with South Florida. But that’s what the game looked like. It looked like Florida and USF were very even teams. Byrum Brown outplayed DJ Lagway. The Gators were undisciplined and inconsistent. The offense couldn’t finish drives, and the defense allowed a few-too-many explosive plays.
Sounds like a coaching issue, doesn’t it? Napier is clearly incapable of coaching this football team up to match its talent. There have been far too many disappointing moments and not nearly enough highs. With a brutal SEC schedule AND games against Miami and Florida State to come, the Gators’ 2025 season could spiral completely out of control.
The end is near for Mike Gundy in Stillwater
This probably isn’t the hottest take, but it’s still likely true. Oklahoma State went to Eugene and looked flat-out non-competitive in its game against Oregon. It’s probably not a good idea to call out your opposing coach heading into a game you’re wildly out-classed in.
The Cowboys might be the worst team in the Power Four. We’ll see how they fare in conference play, but FCS Montana State was a tougher game for Oregon. I know Mike Gundy is an institution at Oklahoma State. However, change has to be considered when that institution starts showing real leaks. Don’t forget that this is a program that was inches away from making the four-team playoff only four years ago.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
South Florida is in the G6 driver’s seat
This one is a little painful. I was all-in on James Madison as this year’s G6 representative in the College Football Playoff. The Dukes’ second-half collapse in Louisville Friday night, combined with USF’s win over Florida, has changed things.
Forget the Group of 6. No team in the COUNTRY has a better resume at the moment than USF. Two ranked wins in two weeks have the Bulls rightfully climbing up the polls. Byrum Brown is already one of this season’s breakout stars, and fans of struggling SEC teams are already clamoring to hire Alex Golesh.
Beating a top-five Miami might be a step too far for the Bulls, but their resume is already set. Wins over Florida and Boise State should get USF over the line over other potential G6 champs. I already have USF’s trip to Memphis on October 25 circled as the biggest game of the year outside the Power 4.
Illinois is good, but still not a playoff team yet
I wasn’t as high on Illinois as a potential at-large playoff team heading into the season. I was a bit concerned for the Illini heading south to face a solid Duke team, but they dismantled the Blue Devils in the second half. It was probably the most eye-raising result of the weekend for me.
However, a deeper look at the stats shows a game dictated by turnovers. Duke lost four fumbles in the game. I am completely aware that the Illinois defense put Darian Mensah in Hell and legitimately forced several of those turnovers. But still, Illinois allowed over 400 yards of total offense in far less possession time.
I have a feeling some of the opponents on Illinois’s schedule won’t make some of the same mistakes. I feel it’s a completely fair position to take that the Illini are probably better than expected, but they still face an uphill battle to make the playoff. Their trip to Indiana in two weeks might be an early at-large play-in game in my book.
Was I right about Oklahoma?
My preseason playoff prediction is mostly in shambles already, but I’m happy to report that Oklahoma is still alive and well in the playoff race. The Sooners look like they hit in a real way with the Ben Arbuckle/John Mateer combo. I’d argue that’s really all they needed to put a true competitor together alongside a Brent Venables defense.
I’d like to see a bit more consistency from Mateer in the passing game, but he just killed Michigan with his legs. That’s a good skill to rely on when things aren’t going great through the air. I mean, Mateer wasn’t a horrible passer, but only completing 21 of 34 passes isn’t incredible.
On the other side, outside of the long TD run by Justice Haynes, Oklahoma’s defense made life difficult for Michigan. The Sooners look like a well-balanced football team, full stop. Every one of their SEC opponents is currently ranked, so that’s not ideal, but let’s not forget that this also gives Oklahoma an edge in a way. While most teams need to go 10-2 to sniff an at-large, Oklahoma can probably afford 3 losses with that gauntlet. I’m feeling good about that pick.
Weekly Pick Review
I had a pretty nice start to the season, I must say. I’ll take 4-1 every week.
Baylor @ SMU: Over 62.5
Easy winner. This one sailed over.
Oklahoma State @ Oregon: Oregon -27.5
Again, Oklahoma State didn’t look like it even played the same sport as Oregon. Another easy one.
Iowa @ Iowa State: Iowa State -3.5
My only loss. If Iowa State’s offense could finish drives, this one would’ve been an easy winner. I believe I saw this one correctly, but the Cyclones couldn’t get the ball into the endzone.
South Florida @ Florida: South Florida +17.5
The line felt way too big, and I was right. These two football teams looked dead even on the field. I only wish I had the balls to give out USF on the ML.
Arizona State @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State +6.5
Sigh… The most predictable ASU performance of the decade. Good for Mississippi State.
Be sure to come back later in the week for my Week Three picks.
Season Record: 4-1
Week Two Playoff Prediction
It’s time to stack another incorrect prediction on top of my previous ones.
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Comments
One response to “CFB Week Two: Napier and Gundy in Real Jeopardy”
nice