Can I just roll out a take off the rip? The SEC starting conference play Week Three (or Week Two in some cases) sucks. College football would be better without the throwaway SEC vs. FCS weekend in late November. Let’s move these games to that weekend and get the cupcakes out of the way early.
I’d much rather see Georgia go to Knoxville later when both teams have found their form. Florida/LSU would be much more fascinating later in the season when one team is in full tilt and the other has moved on from its horrible head coach. Give me more UTEP v. Texas this week, or more Oklahoma at (??) Temple. Save the best football for later in the season.
Anyway, that’s my mini-rant for the week out of the way. Week Three is upon us, and there are some pretty big games. Some, like the aforementioned battle in Baton Rouge, have lost some pre-season luster, but it’s still going to be an interesting weekend. Let’s take a look.
Notre Dame will beat Texas A&M by multiple scores.
Hatred for A&M aside, I’m not sure I see an Aggie squad capable of going into South Bend and winning. They haven’t exactly blown me away in games against UTSA and Utah State, and Marcel Reed comes into this one after getting knocked out of the game last week. His absence from the rest of the game felt like more of a precaution, but it’s still something to monitor.
On the other side, Notre Dame has had two weeks to prepare after the difficult opening loss to Miami. CJ Carr showed me enough in that game that I’m confident he can at least match Marcel Reed in the air. It’s not a good omen that A&M allowed over eight yards per carry (!!) to the leading UTSA and Utah State rushers. I expect a massive game from Jeremiyah Love against a defense that has not stood up well against the run so far.
Give me the Irish to control the football game and cover at home.
Georgia will cruise against Tennessee.
There’s been a lot of over-reaction to Georgia’s 28-6 win over FCS Austin Peay. I didn’t really take a whole lot from that game at all. It was riddled by a weather delay, and Georgia’s gameplan was more vanilla than the ice cream in my freezer. Kirby Smart knew Tennessee was on deck and didn’t want to put anything on tape. Survive and advance.
Speaking of over-reactions, I also don’t really buy into the Joey Aguilar hype. I get that he’s played pretty well in the Vols’ first two games, but they were against FCS East Tennessee State and Syracuse, which I think is really, REALLY bad. Georgia’s defense is a significant step up in competition.
I know the game is in Knoxville, but I trust Georgia’s defense to present some issues to Aguilar that he isn’t yet equipped to manage.
USF will lose to Miami, but it won’t matter.
Beating Florida on the road is impressive, but I think doing it for a second week in a row against a tougher opponent is a step too far. Plus, the Bulls don’t really need this game to accomplish everything they dreamt of preseason.
With wins over Boise State and Florida, USF is head-and-shoulders ahead of every other team in the G6 playoff race. As long as it wins the American, any sort of loss at Miami won’t keep the Bulls out of the field.
Don’t get me wrong. Nothing would shock me in this football game. Byrum Brown has been excellent, but I think it’s fair to say USF has been on the right end of some luck. Turnovers absolutely killed Boise State Week One, and Billy Napier handed USF the game multiple times with awful game management decisions.
Mario Cristobal has been the butt of some game management jokes of his own, but I still think this one is a step too far.
Billy Napier may not be allowed on the plane back to Gainesville.
Florida football could not be reeling at a worse time. After losing to USF, the Gators head to Baton Rouge, where the Tigers have their eyes set on an SEC Championship and more. There may not be a more difficult place to play than LSU at night. If LSU’s defense is anywhere near the level it was at Clemson a couple weeks ago, good luck.
To make matters worse, Saturday night’s visitors might feel more heat from their head coach’s seat than the opposing fans. There will surely be a lot of pressure to perform and come up with a result, but I just don’t see it. I wish the spread was a point lower for some extra security, but I have a feeling this one could unravel very quickly for the Gators.
Other Games to Watch
Colorado @ Houston: I have this one listed first since it’s on Friday night. There might have been some surprise about the spread favoring the Cougars by 4.5, but that feels right. Houston is a little better than expected, and Colorado is probably worse than expected.
Clemson @ Georgia Tech: My confidence in Clemson is waning by the week. If the Tigers struggle in Atlanta or even lose to the Yellow Jackets outright, they’ll be exiting my playoff prediction posthaste.
Wisconsin @ Alabama: Feel like I have to mention it for the brand value. I don’t expect this one to be particularly competitive. It’ll be even worse with Billy Edwards out for Wisconsin.
Memphis @ Troy: A fascinating G6 non-con game to say the least. A Memphis loss would only sweeten the start for USF.
USC @ Purdue: How will USC fare with the travel this year? The Trojans did not handle it well at all last year. Purdue will be a good first road trip. A close football game could signal more issues on the road for an otherwise talented team.
Pitt @ West Virginia: YES! I love the Backyard Brawl. It’s just too bad West Virginia does not at all appear to be a good team.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss: I’d be very wary of Arkansas in this spot. Taylen Green has been excellent to start the year for the Razorbacks, and Austin Simmons is dinged up. Could be interesting.
Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech: (Another) Hokie loss to Old Dominion would likely spell the end of the Brent Pry era in Blacksburg.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina: One team is ranked in the top 15 and the other isn’t, but this is a pretty even matchup. The odds reflect it.
Nick’s Six Picks of the Week
I had a really good week last week, so that just means I’m about to get crushed.
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame -6.5
As I mentioned, I fear Texas A&M’s defense won’t be able to stand up to Notre Dame’s physicality. If you’re looking for an SGP angle, add in Jeremiyah Love 70+ rushing yards.
Georgia @ Tennessee: Georgia -4.5
I dare Joey Aguilar to prove me wrong.
Florida @ LSU: LSU -7.5
Wouldn’t be shocked if Napier gets Kiffin’d after this game. Unfortunately, LAX is a much nicer airport than wherever the Gators are flying.
Utah @ Wyoming: Utah -23.5
Wyoming is a struggling Mountain West team, and Utah will still want to keep making statements. I like the Utes BIG.
Oregon @ Northwestern: Oregon OVER 37.5 Points
Dan Lanning said he was excited to play on the lakefront in Illinois. I don’t doubt him. Running it up on Oklahoma State last week was personal, but Oregon could put up 40 on Northwestern with its eyes closed.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss: Arkansas +7.5
6.5 would have been a stay away, but I like getting the right side of the football number. All I’m saying is I think this one is closer than some think.
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