Some weeks in college football just leave you staring at the wall looking for answers. It’s hard to come up with confident takeaways when it’s clear that only one thing is certain: NOTHING!
The gap between the best team and 50th-best team is slimmer than ever. Somehow, none of the results and ALL the results are shocking at the same time. Whatever. I don’t care if I lose money on it every week. It’s college football at its best, and I can’t get enough of it.
Indiana is everything we thought Penn State was
I’ve been so wrong on so much that I am more than happy to keep taking victory laps every week with this Indiana team. I have to admit, though: Even I didn’t think the Hoosiers had a win in Eugene in the tank.
Well, they did, and the craziest part is that I don’t really think their offense played that well. If you told me pregame that Roman Hemby would average under four yards per carry and that Fernando Mendoza would complete less than two-thirds of his passes with a pick six mixed in, I would have assumed an Oregon win.
The real story here for me is Indiana’s defense. Six sacks. Eight tackles for loss. Two interceptions. At all three levels, Indiana’s defense was better than Oregon’s offense. For what it’s worth, I predicted the Hoosiers’ defense would be better than expected, but this is an entirely different level.
A high-level NFL-type quarterback. Real playmakers at the skill positions. Dominant line play on both sides. Defensive backs that can cover the best. Kinda sounds like what we were saying about Penn State preseason, doesn’t it?
I’ve got an entirely new blog coming for Penn State later in the week. Don’t you worry.
The SEC is starting to take shape
For the first time, I’m starting to have some clarity about the playoff picture in the SEC. Now, remember what I said at the top. NOTHING is certain. But I’m seeing enough data points from the top teams to come to some solid conclusions.
Texas A&M is in. Dominating in a trap spot against Florida was a huge step forward. Looking at their schedule, the Aggies will be favored in every game the rest of the way. Trips to LSU, Missouri, and Texas are definitely tricky, but they’ve shown they can win rock fights and shootouts. A&M could go 1-2 over those three and still likely get an at-large bid.
Alabama is in. I don’t fully trust any of the ranked teams left on the Tide’s schedule, and the win over Missouri proved to me that they can win when not everything goes right. Ty Simpson is still playing as well as any quarterback in the country.
Ole Miss is in. The Rebels’ schedule is just too easy overall. The Rebels’ next two games will decide their fate, and with Georgia and Oklahoma both looking pretty beatable, a split of those is easily manageable. If the Rebs win both and land at 8-0, you can save them a playoff spot in ink.
Oklahoma is out. To me, the Sooners are pretty close to Ole Miss’s level as far as talent is concerned. However, unlike Ole Miss, the back-half of the schedule is murder for OU. Five of its next six opponents are currently ranked, and the sixth has top-25 upside. I think the Sooners are probably just as talented as some SEC teams that will get into the playoff, but the schedule is a massive barrier. Red River was must-win to maintain some margin for error the rest of the way, but the Sooners couldn’t get it done.
Hello, USC!
The Trojans didn’t have any issues with Michigan on Saturday in what felt like a potential playoff eliminator. If they go to South Bend and beat Notre Dame this week, they’ll be in great shape.
USC has established a group of skill players that is as talented as any in the country. I don’t think there is a better receiving duo than Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, Walker Lyons and Lake McRee are both reliable tight ends, and how about those running backs! Waymond Jordan goes out with an injury, and in steps King Miller. Don’t worry. He’ll come in and average nearly nine yards per carry.
Losing Jordan is a big blow, but that loss might be canceled out by the emergence of more reliable defensive play. I still have concerns about the Trojans up front, but holding a quarterback as talented as Bryce Underwood to 13 points is no small feat. I get that Michigan’s receivers are average at best, but that’s kind of what USC has to face the rest of the season other than its trip to Eugene.
If Southern Cal can go to South Bend and win, it will be in great position to get to the College Football Playoff.
Weekly Pick Review
These had me throwing up in my mouth a little. My only win was my moral hedge. RIP Sparky.
Indiana @ Oregon: Oregon -7.5
Yeah, I didn’t know Indiana was that good.
UCF @ Cincinnati: Cincinnati -10.5
YOU LET GO OF THE ROPE, BEARCATS! This was the right side and would have cruised if Cincy had tried in the second half.
Alabama @ Missouri: Alabama -3.5
Unfortunate.
Oklahoma vs Texas: Oklahoma ML
I should have smelled the rat. It was the rattiest rat that ever ratted. I still fell for it.
Ohio State @ Illinois: OVER 51.5 Points
Hey, guys! Want to give me one more score? Just one? PLEASE!?
Arizona State @ Utah: Utah -8.5
I miss Cam Skattebo.
Week Seven College Football Playoff Prediction
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