CFB Week One: LSU Roars, Bama Unravels, and Texas Disappoints

Week One of the college football season has come and gone, mostly. We’ve still got Bill Belichick’s North Carolina debut against TCU tonight, but every other game has been played out. After eight-plus months without college football, it’s hard not to make knee-jerk reactions and adjust expectations we’ve spent months forming.

Overreacting would be pretty easy after many (including myself) were 0/3 on predictions for this weekend’s biggest games. I’m trying to be realistic here, but there were some pretty obvious takeaways from this weekend, even with the limited sample size. Even though it’s clear I was wrong on a lot going into the season, it feels so damn nice to have college football back!

Let’s get into my biggest takeaways from the weekend.

Alabama is not an SEC Championship contender

This is about as knee-jerk as knee-jerk gets, but what I saw from the Tide on Saturday was very concerning. Florida State ran for 230 yards on 49 attempts. Giving up over 4.6 yards per carry won’t get it done when Alabama gets into SEC play. Just at a glance, I count seven teams left on the schedule with offensive fronts equal to or better than FSU. That’s a major problem. I get that Tommy Castellanos is a uniquely mobile quarterback, but it’s not like the SEC doesn’t have explosive QBs either.

On offense, what I saw from Ty Simpson was simply uninspiring. Alabama was clearly not comfortable with him sitting in the pocket and making throws downfield. Most of his 254 yards passing were on checkdowns, screens, and quick RPOs. If that’s just what Simpson is as a passer, teams will be able to load the box, stop the run, and dare him to beat them over the top. At times it just looked like he was seeing ghosts, missing reads and blowing opportunities. Making your first start on the road in Tallahassee can’t be easy, but I still don’t think Simpson looked like the kind of guy Alabama will need to compete for a conference title. If things stay rocky, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kalen DeBoer go to Keelon Russell under center.

Nick Saban coached 230 games at Alabama – he had four losses to unranked teams during that stretch.

Kalen Deboer has coached 14 games at Alabama – and just lost his fourth game to an unranked opponent.

Debate, discuss. pic.twitter.com/hNNAMZ8tCW

— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) August 30, 2025

LSU is an SEC Championship Contender

If I’m taking Alabama out of conference title contention, I have to add a different team in. LSU showed me more than enough to prove it belongs firmly in that conversation.

Let’s face it. If LSU is going to get this sort of improvement from its defense on a consistent basis, the Tigers aren’t just an SEC contender. They are a National Championship contender. LSU went on the road and held one of the nation’s most talented offenses to 261 yards of total offense, 31 rushing yards (!!), and 10 total points. Alarm bells should be ringing at every other major program in the country. If it stays healthy and consistent, this LSU team is for real.

The offense will be fine. I know it only scored 17 points, but having over 350 yards of total offense on the road against a talented defense is nothing to scoff at. I also just liked the plays Garrett Nussmeier made throughout the game, especially in the second half. He controlled the game and methodically brought the Tigers back from behind. Overall, it was an incredibly impressive performance. It’s only one week, but this looks like one of the best teams in college football.

Ohio State isn’t going anywhere

There have been a ton of questions about the Buckeyes heading into 2025, but Saturday proved that they won’t be far off last season in terms of ability. The secondary proved to be as good as expected, if not better. Offensively, Julian Sayin at least proved that he can drive the boat without running it aground.

As I’ll get into next, I don’t have a ton of other real tangible takeaways from that game. I just thought the Texas offense played very poorly. We at least have to give some credit to OSU’s scheme, but it was hard to get a true read on either Ohio State’s defense or Texas’s offense when Arch Manning was just missing throws left and right the way he was. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes showed they are likely a top-end playoff team again.

Clemson and Texas will be fine

I didn’t really see anything from either Clemson or Texas that would suggest the sky is falling for either football team. I think Clemson ran into a buzzsaw that very few saw coming, and the Longhorn offense just had a bad day.

Clemson’s lack of run push against LSU was concerning, but it felt like that had more to do with LSU’s defensive front. Cade Klubnik was pretty average for his standards. He only completed 50% of his throws, and while he took some downfield shots, LSU did a very good job of forcing him to stay underneath on most of his drop backs. I expect him to be better over the course of the season.

The same goes for Arch Manning at Texas. He missed so many open throws that it’s almost hard to imagine him struggling that much again. We know his potential is way better than what we saw in Columbus, so I’m expecting him to bounce back in a big way over the course of the season. Plus, he won’t see many secondaries more talented than the one that shut him down on Saturday. The reality is that, with a defense as good as Texas has, Manning shouldn’t have to improve a ton for the Longhorns to make the playoff.

The Big 12 is a one-bid conference

Given that I had two Big 12 teams in my pre-season playoff, this one pains me to no end. However, I do believe this weekend’s results cemented the Big 12 as a one-bid league in this year’s playoff.

While Miami and Florida State picked up massive wins against Notre Dame and the SEC, the Big 12 mostly faltered in key non-conference matchups. Cincinnati had a chance to beat Nebraska late and couldn’t make it happen. Baylor got dominated at home by Auburn. Colorado lost at home to Georgia Tech. Those were three of the most important non-conference games for the conference all season, and it came out on the wrong end of all of them. If the ACC’s top-and-mid-level teams continue to pick up non-conference wins, especially directly against the Big 12, the Big 12 has no shot at getting two teams in.

Really the only bright spot was Utah’s dismantling of UCLA in Pasadena. Utah’s defense absolutely manhandled the Bruins, and Devon Dampier looks to be a real upgrade for the Utes. I didn’t have them in my preseason playoff prediction, but no team looks better equipped to win the Big 12 at this point. That’s another smaller takeaway I had, but I didn’t want to stamp it in brown ink just yet given that most of the Big 12 played FCS competition.

South Florida will be in the mix for the G6 playoff spot

Don’t get me wrong. I expected Boise State to take a step back, as I mentioned in my season preview earlier this week. However, the manner in which USF thoroughly dismantled the Broncos was a serious statement of intent.

Quarterback Byrum Brown was awesome, and I could see him becoming this season’s G6 darling. He made some big throws and used his legs effectively as well. His running style would play very well at the power-four level. Given the 3-0 turnover win for the Bulls, I still don’t have them cemented as a clear favorite for that last playoff spot, but they showed enough in the opener that will carry over very well in the American.

College Football Playoff prediction after Week One

I think I’m going to amend my playoff prediction after every week’s games. I can, so why wouldn’t I?

12. James Madison*

11. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
9. Oklahoma
8. Miami
7. Georgia

6. Utah*

5. LSU

4. Ohio State

3. Clemson*

2. Texas*
1. Penn State*

* Automatic Qualifier

This isn’t a ranking. It’s a projection of how I think the entire season will go based on this weekend’s games and my preseason expectations. If I stay true to the trope that Clemson and Texas will be fine, I still have them both winning their conferences. I still think Ohio State loses the Big Ten to Penn State. That would likely lead to the top four I have now.

College football is back baby!


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