Every week this college football season, I feel like I’m pulling on the same thread. Nobody is safe. Anything is possible. There is no sure thing in this sport. In an era where the talent curve is flattening and the best teams are closer to the pack than ever before, anyone can beat anyone.
This was extremely evident in week eight. Nine ranked teams lost, and three more were taken to the brink. Every spot in the rankings changed after those games except number one. Two teams we felt were fairly nailed on to go undefeated lost. At this point, writing these blogs and making predictions is akin to throwing dull darts at a board blindfolded, hoping to somehow strike bullseye. It feels impossible.
With that said, it’s time to pick up those darts and start throwing again.
Classic Miami strikes again
It feels inevitable for the Canes to take a stunning conference loss that nobody saw coming. Maybe we should’ve just chalked up one of these coming into the season. It still doesn’t make losing at home to Louisville any better.
The worst of Carson Beck reared its ugly head in this one. His four interceptions cost Miami key possessions. But the most damning part is that Louisville didn’t score a single point off those turnovers. Isaac Brown even gave the Canes the ball back in his own red zone to let them back into the game late. You can’t even blame it on time of possession, which was only two-plus minutes in Louisville’s favor despite all the turnovers.
Louisville did so much to try to let Miami win this game. And yet, the Canes couldn’t do it. They couldn’t run the ball at all, which was a major problem given Brown’s 7.5 yards-per-carry he was putting up on their defense. And it’s not like Miller Moss was lighting them up through the air either. His 23/27 for 248 was fairly pedestrian, especially considering that 71 of the 248 came on two touchdowns to Chris Bell.
With Miami losing, the ACC title picture becomes quite uncertain. Even if they are the best team in the conference, the Canes will need some help to get to Charlotte. Georgia Tech, Virginia, and SMU are all still undefeated in conference play. Miami plays only SMU out of that group. Additionally, Georgia Tech and Virginia don’t play each other. There is a world where this one loss shuts the Canes out of the conference championship game. How likely that is, however, probably depends more on your belief in the Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers to handle their business. I still think Miami will be okay, but the loss certainly complicates things.
The top of the SEC solidifies further
I said last week that I thought the playoff-end of the SEC was beginning to materialize, and this week’s results only furthered my feelings on that. Ole Miss lost to Georgia, but the Rebels showed me enough to prove they are probably a 10-2 or 11-1 team, especially given their schedule. They are still in decent shape.
Georgia should be fine as well. The only game left I could see them realistically losing is the finale to Georgia Tech. 10-2 with losses to two other potential playoff teams is at-large worthy.
Texas A&M struggled a bit to put Arkansas away, but with a lengthy weather delay on the road, that felt like one where you just have to survive. And the Aggies did just that. Their defense is fairly suspect, but I don’t see a team left on their schedule that has the tools to adequately expose that. Certainly none are at the same offensive level as the Razorbacks team A&M just beat.
Alabama at this point still looks like the class of the SEC. The Tide will be significant favorites in every game the rest of the season. Most importantly, they have proven they can beat good teams when Ty Simpson isn’t at his best.
Lastly, I have to throw Vanderbilt and Missouri into this group. How could you not? The Commodores beat LSU by a touchdown, and it didn’t feel that close. Missouri has been a bit more suspect, but the Tigers are still 6-1 and right in the thick of things. I flag these two together because they face each other next week in what is likely a College Football Playoff eliminator. Whichever team wins that game will feel really good about its chances to reach the postseason.
The Big Ten looks like a three-bid league
It was not a good weekend for the Big Ten. Between losses by USC, Nebraska, and Washington, the conference saw three playoff hopefuls all but fall out of the race. I tried my best, Big Ten. I really did.
Last week, I forced USC into my playoff prediction, and the Trojans immediately fell out. Nebraska laid an absolute egg against Minnesota. While Washington wasn’t ranked, the Huskies could’ve taken a significant step forward with a good performance against Michigan. That didn’t happen.
Ohio State and Indiana might be the best two teams in the country. Oregon isn’t far behind. However, the rest of the conference is just falling apart. I’m not sure I see any others making the College Football Playoff beyond those three.
The Big 12 returns to chaos mode
You just knew the Sun Devils were going to get somebody. That’s how they work. When you write them off, they tend to perform best. Don’t put any expectations on them, because they’ll fall short. But when you expect nothing, ASU usually surprises. Texas Tech learned that the hard way this week.
After losing in Tempe, the Red Raiders went from College Football Playoff darlings to likely needing to win out just to salvage a spot in the conference championship. Tech does play BYU in a few weeks, so it will have a chance to make up some ground. The Red Raiders also need ASU and Cincinnati to take losses elsewhere.
After BYU’s win over Utah (which I was not expecting), there still exists a chaos scenario. Texas Tech could win the rest of its games, clearly be the best team in the conference, and still not make the conference championship game. It’s unlikely but still possible.
In the Big 12, nothing can be predicted for anything close to certain. BYU is 7-0. 12-0 wouldn’t shock me. 7-5 wouldn’t shock me. Anything can happen. Given the schedules left the rest of the way, it looks like we’re headed toward another situation where mental gymnastics are needed to figure out who makes it to Arlington.
Weekly Pick Review
Georgia Tech @ Duke: Georgia Tech ML
The knock on the Yellow Jackets was that they aren’t reliable favorites in ACC games. Well guess what, they weren’t the favorites in this one!
Texas Tech @ Arizona State: Texas Tech -8.5
This line was all over the place because of the quarterback situations. I got it at 8.5. Would not have mattered. I’ll gladly lose the moral hedge every time.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas: OVER 58.5 Points
A&M’s defense is suspect, Arkansas’s defense flat out stinks, and both offenses are really good. Didn’t seem very hard.
Utah @ BYU: Utah -3.5
What happened to Utah? And why couldn’t this version of the Utes show up last week against ASU?
LSU @ Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt -1.5
Vanderbilt won by a touchdown and it didn’t feel that close. Anchor Down.
Tennessee @ Alabama: Alabama -9.5
This pick was more about Tennessee than it was about Bama. Bama is really good, and the Vols aren’t quite on that level.
Week Eight College Football Playoff Prediction
Hey, has anyone seen my darts? I seem to have lost them all.
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