Lewis vs. Spivak
Welcome back to #FadeBeans–the gambling segment where I give my picks and predictions for every UFC fight card and you get to rake in the money fading me! For more information, please visit this article.
If you’re preparing to catch this weekend’s UFC card, prepare to stay up past your bedtime (unless your bedtime is the witching hour). UFC Vegas 68 is a compensation card for South Korean UFC fans.
The event was supposed to take place in the East, but unfortunately, no fight was found for local superstar Chan Sung Jung. The event is still catered to that specific audience, starting with the prelims at 10 p.m. EST and the main card at 1 a.m. EST.
All odds are accurate as of the time of posting and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tatsuro Taira (-1150) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+750)
What the experts are saying: Taira -1150
Beans’ pick: Taira -1150
I already know what you’re thinking, and you’re right: there is absolutely zero value here at all. While I’ve never heard of Jesus Aguilar (the fighter, at least), all I know is that Tatsuro Taira is a scorching prospect with incredible grappling and versatile athleticism. I don’t necessarily think he should be favored so heavily in only his third UFC fight, but I’m going to let it slide for now. Seriously though, Taira shows signs that he could go toe-to-toe with some of the best grapplers at 125 lbs. It’ll be interesting to see how quickly he makes a statement by finishing Aguilar.
Doo Ho Choi (-190) vs. Kyle Nelson (+165)
What the experts are saying: Choi -190
Beans’ pick: Choi -190
Earlier this week, we learned that Doo Ho Choi looks the same at 31 years old as he did at 22 years old.
While the “Korean Superboy” hasn’t fought since 2019, I personally doubt it’ll be an issue. Choi has righteous power. He has won 11 of his 14 matches by knockout. Although it’s important to note that his most recent two losses—to Charles Jourdain and Jeremy Stephens—both came by way of knockout, he is at ease in a firefight. Check out how he battles through this exchange with Cub Swanson:
For a fighter who had already started showing signs of durability issues prior to his break, the time away is obviously a concern. If Choi’s chin doesn’t hold up, he has virtually no chance of winning more fights.
Derrick Lewis (+195) vs. Sergey Spivac (-230)
What the experts are saying: Spivac -230
Beans’ pick: Lewis +195
Derrick Lewis has never lost three fights in a row, and he’s not about to start now. Although Spivac is a fairly uninteresting fighter and hasn’t faced many high-caliber opponents during his time in the UFC, the outcomes are hard to contest. In his last six fights, he is 5-1, with three of those victories coming by way of knockout. But Lewis’ resume far outweighs the “Polar Bear” from Maldova.
The one time Spivac fought a high-end opponent (Tom Aspinall), Spivac was knocked out in less than three minutes.
Yes, I can see Lewis losing this fight because Spivac is going to wrestle his way to a unanimous decision. But before he tries to shoot takedowns on Derrick Lewis, he should consult with Curtis Blaydes…
Derrick Lewis. Value Play. You heard it here first!
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