Welcome back to #FadeBeans–the gambling segment where I give my picks and predictions for every UFC fight card and you get to rake in the money fading me! For more information, please visit this article.
In its first PPV championship live event of 2023, the UFC is returning to Brazil for the first time since March 2020. This will be the 13th Brazilian PPV in the promotion’s history. The night will be headlined by 43-year-old Brazilian native (and fan favorite) Glover Teixeira as he battles to regain the Light Heavyweight strap. His opponent: “Sweet Dreams” Jamahal Hill.
The card is stacked with plenty of high-caliber Brazilian scrappers, and I’ve got my eye on more than a few. I’m calling them the “fab 5”. Looking at the odds for some of these fights, I’m extremely confident in my picks. In other words, it would not behoove you to fade me.
Simply from a profit standpoint, I firmly believe there is little value to betting on the underdogs in this card (you’ll see what I mean). I have faith in my choices (but we all know I just jinxed myself). I won’t want to boast that I told you so, but I will if I must. All odds are current as of Jan. 19 according to DraftKings.
Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (-300) vs. Brunno Ferriera (+250)
What the experts are saying: Mixed
Beans’ pick: Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues -300
Let’s get a few things out of the way. First, this is Ferriera’s UFC debut. Yes, he did win his Contender Series fight by first-round KO, and that can’t be ignored. Also, according to Tapology, he’s the #2 ranked Middleweight in Brazil. But none of that matters when you’re facing Robocop. He’s incredibly powerful and durable, and he finds ways to explode through striking exchanges. He literally embodies Robocop in the Octagon.
All jokes aside, Rodrigues is coming off two back-to-back TKOs and obviously has more experience in the UFC than his newcomer opponent. Even if Ferriera manages to land a clean strike, it’s very difficult to put Rodrigues down. If you’re curious to see how tough Robocop actually is, check out his last fight against Chidi Njokuani.
See what I’m saying? Did you see him just eat that knee?
He’s -300 for a reason. I see him getting the job done in a violent fashion.
Shamil Abdurakhimov (+675) vs Jailton Almeida (-975)
What the experts are saying: Jailton Almeida -975
Beans’ pick: Jailton Almeida -975
Ok, I know what you’re thinking: “-975? Is this guy joking? I’m obviously not going to fade that!” You’re right. There is literally zero value in this play. But, it’s free money! Not to mention I look great when he wins. I will say, a -975 line is egregious. I honestly don’t know why this matchup exists. Jailton Almeida is a marauder. The dude is an up-and-coming heavyweight prospect and they paired him with a washed-up 41 year old who has gotten FOLDED 6 times in his last 7 fights. I feel bad for Abdurakhimov. This is the definition of “feeding a guy to the wolves.” He deserves better. But if you fade me and choose him, you’re lighting money on fire.
BONUS PLAY: Fine, if you think I’m soft for including this, I’ll even go as far as to say this fight ends under 1.5 rounds (-300). Almeida hasn’t gone longer than round one in his UFC career, so this is a very plausible outcome.
Josiane Nunes (-540) vs Zarah Fairn Dos Santos (+420)
What the experts are saying: Mixed
Beans’ pick: Josiane Nunes -540
Again, you might think I’m just choosing favorites to make myself look good. Indeed this is not the case–the odds on this card are lopsided, as are the matchups. I am not a UFC matchmaker (although I’d be good at it).
My reason for picking “Josi” is due to her extremely impressive toughness. Watching her fight is like watching a bulldozer carve out a mineshaft. She continues to press forward, but moves quickly and precisely.
Meanwhile, her opponent is 0-2 in the UFC with losses to Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer. Tough losses for sure, so you can be sure Zarah will bring the smoke. She also has a severe high advantage. Regardless, I foresee Josi taking care of business.
Paul Craig (+165) vs Johnny Walker (-195)
What the experts are saying: Johnny Walker -195
Beans’ pick: Johnny Walter -195
This might be my most anticipated match-up on the card. Paul Craig is a warrior without question, and one of my favorite fighters on the UFC roster. The thing to know about Craig is that he’s a jiu jitsu ace. Grappling is his specialty–he’s finished 7 of his 8 UFC wins by submission. Throughout his career, he’s submitted the current #3, #7, and #8 ranked Light Heavyweights (Craig is currently ranked #9).
But Johnny Walker (ranked #12) is a horrible match up for him. Walker is 6’6” which is huge for a Light Heavyweight. He’s also the most unorthodox striker in the division.
Given his track record, Craig would have to find a way to submit Walker. It’s unlikely given Walker’s ability to control distance with kicks and his sheer reach advantage. So, for that reason, I’m betting on Johnny Walker to get the job done, even though I’m disappointed to bet against Craig.
Glover Teixeira (+120) vs. Jamahal Hill (-140)
What the experts are saying: Very mixed
Beans’ pick: Glover Teixeira +120
Hear me now: Glover Teixeira will win this fight. Yes, he’s 43-years-old and yes his opponent is a dominating force with sensational knockout power. But I’ve looked at this from multiple angles and I see victory in the future for Glover.
First, this is Jamahal Hill’s first time leaving the United States of America. If you’ve been watching UFC Embedded this week, Hill mentions that he’s never traveled outside of the country. Can you imagine? On his first time out of the country, he’s about to set foot into a packed Jeunesse Arena with 20,000+ fans screaming for him to get crumbled, all the while fighting for a UFC championship. He’s going to be in a blender mentally.
Second, Jamahal Hill relies on his (very) heavy hands. It’s worked for him; he’s knocked out Johnny Walker, Thiago Santos, and Ovince St. Preux who are all incredible fighters. However, Glover Teixeira is as tough as they come, and his head is built like a cinder block. In his last fight, Glover took immense damage from Jiří Procházka who is one of the most powerful punchers in UFC history. Even Jiri couldn’t knock him down. So, when Jamahal realizes his punching power can’t save him, what is he left with?
Hill is also susceptible to getting taken down and submitted. Paul Craig caused Jamahal to take almost half a year off because of a nasty armbar.
Meanwhile, even at 43 years old, Glover can still grapple. When Glover took the Light Heavyweight championship from Jan Błachowicz in September of 2021, he won via submission, something nobody saw coming.
People think Jamahal is going to roll through Glover because of his age, but I assure you, Glover Teixeira is built different. A smile came to my face when I saw he was an underdog. Watch–he’s going to shock the world.
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