It’s not uncommon for widely-hyped college football slates to disappoint. On weekends with several fantastic games in theory, we usually get a couple duds. Not this weekend.
College Football delivered. It was glorious, unless you’re a fan of certain teams in Athens, Tallahassee, or State College. Let’s get into it.
Oregon asserts itself as a playoff team
Oregon’s game against Penn State was its only real obstacle to finishing the season in a playoff place. The Ducks are now pretty likely to go 12-0 in the regular season. Even if they somehow slip up against Indiana or in an even more unfathomable spot on the schedule, the Ducks are sitting pretty.
My thesis for doubting Oregon in the preseason was my lack of belief in Dante Moore at quarterback. After going into the Whiteout and dropping a 29/39 with 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, Moore has proven me incredibly wrong. I thought Moore was impressively poised in that big spot, and while he has some likely mistakes in his game, he’s still much more capable back there than I thought.
Outside Moore, Oregon’s offense showcased a plethora of talent that Penn State just couldn’t match. Dakorien Moore is a superstar, Gary Bryant Jr. had a great game, and Kenyon Sadiq came up with some massive catches. And how about this stable of running backs? Dierre Hill Jr. is incredible, and he wasn’t even listed on some preseason depth charts.
Defensively, Oregon was just as impressive, pushing a good Penn State team around all night. The Ducks only allowed Penn State’s running back duo 75 yards on 23 carries. Drew Allar also looked pretty pedestrian on every play besides his beautiful touchdown pass to Devonte Ross in the fourth quarter.
But that might be the bigger issue for Penn State moving forward. Drew Allar is just average. He’ll make a couple big throws, but he’s shown time and again he isn’t good enough to get Penn State where it wants to go. My biggest takeaway from Saturday is that I have to choose a new national champion, because an Allar-led Penn State isn’t getting it done.
Alabama is back
I basically declared the Crimson Tide dead after Week One, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Noticing a theme there this week?
No matter how you cut it, going into Samford Stadium and beating Georgia is quite impressive. For the second year in a row, Kalen DeBoer and his coaching staff punked the Bulldogs’ defense in the first half and rode it out the rest of the way.
There are still obvious concerns with Alabama. Allowing 227 yards rushing and nearly 7 yards per carry is Swiss-cheese-esque. The Tide also couldn’t really make any sort of headway in the run game. But Ty Simpson was just nails, man. Since his rocky first start in Tallahassee, he’s been nothing short of incredible. With the talent Alabama has surrounding him, it is clearly a playoff team with that level of QB play.
I know I said Alabama wasn’t an SEC Title contender after Week One, but let’s wipe that off the board. The remaining schedule is an absolute gauntlet, and the Tide really struggle against mobile quarterbacks, but they showed me enough to get back into my playoff prediction. We’ll see if Vanderbilt has anything to say about that next week.
Florida State… What the hell!?
It was the most lookahead spot that has ever looked ahead. We were headed toward a clash of undefeateds next week between Florida State and Miami, but nothing is guaranteed when you make a trip to…. wait…. VIRGINIA!?
I don’t really think the Cavaliers are a good team at all, and I’m still not entirely sure how Florida State lost that game. Is Virginia actually good? Does Florida State stink? I still have no idea. Florida State had 514 yards of total offense, was equal in the turnover battle, and still lost. I get that Chandler Norris made some big-time plays, but c’mon.
In the grand scheme of things, it’s a disastrous result for the ACC, which has now gone from having two-to-three solid playoff contenders to having one solid contender, one iffy candidate, and one on the brink of elimination. If the Noles somehow beat Miami next week, it’s complete chaos there.
I’m just glad Squirrel White survived this:
Ole Miss enters the SEC Championship and Playoff discussion
I felt LSU was a bit of a paper tiger heading into this game, so I want to be careful not to over-credit the Rebels for barely hanging on against that team at home. However, their schedule moving forward is simple enough that it’s impossible not to put them firmly in the conversation.
It seems pretty clear at this point that Trinidad Chambliss is an absolute stud. He severely out-played Garrett Nussmeier in the game and proved that, at the very least, he’s good enough to guide the Rebs through their schedule.
Like everyone else, I gave LSU a lot of credit early on, but it was largely buoyed by a road win against a Clemson team we now know isn’t very good. This performance to me was much more reflective of the team LSU really is – a frustrating offense and a decent but not incredible offense.
The result is pretty massive for the Rebels because it gives them a clear path to the playoff. Trips to Athens and Norman are still on the schedule, but with Georgia looking beatable and Oklahoma in complete flux, nothing on the schedule looks extremely daunting. Even if Ole Miss loses those two games, it should be able to go 10-2 and have a really solid at-large case.
Whit Weeks might have thrown the first punch by hard-launching his relationship with Lane Kiffin’s daughter, but Kiffin responded with a knockout blow.
Weekly Pick Review
I was too busy stressing to all hell in Tempe last week to get my picks posted, so that’s two weeks in a row that my preview blog never saw the light of day. You’ll just have to trust me.
TCU @ Arizona State: TCU ML
A bit of a moral hedge, but I also legitimately felt like the Horned Frogs would win the game. I’m glad to lose this one, though.
Oregon @ Penn State: UNDER 53.5 Points
Just a heartbreaker. This was 100% the right side, but double overtime killed me here. Just have to drain it and move on.
LSU @ Ole Miss: Ole Miss -1.5
Like I said, LSU felt a little phony to me heading into the game. The odds reflected that, and I rode the wave.
Indiana @ Iowa: Indiana -8.5
I should’ve known the Hoosiers were due for a let down. They really struggled with the Hawkeyes. I’m just glad my pick was far enough out that the intentional safety didn’t murder me.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State +7.5
The Bulldogs just might be a pretty good team. They really should have beaten the Vols outright, but I’ll take the cover.
USC @ Illinois: USC -6.5
Sigh. Illinois was down to its backup corners against the Trojans’ elite receivers, and it didn’t matter. USC’s defense showed some glimpses of a return to crappy form, and it lost the game outright.
Week Five College Football Playoff Prediction
It’s that time again. It’s time for a shakeup.
NOTE: Oklahoma’s quarterback flux with John Mateer out takes the Sooners out completely in my mind. They could lose a couple games with him out.
Follow Nick Hedges on X (@nicktrimshedges) or Instagram (@nicktrimshedges)