There are a few locales in college football that I call “Voodoo Venues.” These are stadiums where weird things always tend to happen, and they always favor the hosts. Think Pac-12 After Dark status, but permanently. Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the first Voodoo Venues to come to mind.
Just think about it. The TV cameras can see the field at kick off, but it’s hazy as hell from pregame pyrotechnics. The fans are crazy loud, which catches you off guard given the relative lack of alcohol involved. You’re at altitude (over 4,600 feet). It all combines to create a nightmarish atmosphere for visiting teams where bad things happen.
Texas Tech took all that and threw it out the window
It’s extremely difficult to go into Salt Lake and win a football game the way the Red Raiders did. It was much closer than the score suggests, but that doesn’t take anything away from Tech’s control of the game from the jump.
And they did it all with their starting quarterback getting hurt. Although, there might be a real conversation about Will Hammond becoming the regular starter. 13/16 for 169 yards and 2 TDs off the bench is incredible.
Nonetheless, the real story here is Texas Tech’s defense, which looks to be a level above the rest of the Big 12. Standing up to a top-tier offensive line and only allowing 3.3 yards-per-carry is an incredible performance. If Utah, with multiple NFL-level talents on its O-Line, struggled that much, imagine what Tech’s defensive front will do to the rest of the conference.
On the other side, my one fear with Utah became a reality, and it’s the one reason I am a little slow to vault Tech to the very top of my playoff prediction. Devon Dampier has shown a susceptibility to whoopsie-ball in the past, and that habit reared its ugly head again. Some of the decision making and execution from him just wasn’t good enough.
He certainly isn’t horrible, but in close Big 12 games, one or two of those types of plays can be back-breaking. They certainly were on Saturday. I still think Utah will be a tough out, but it is liable to lose more if Dampier is going to struggle that much against defenses with a pulse.
I was right about Indiana
Sometimes it’s just nice to see one go in. I was convinced in the pre-season that this year’s Indiana team was better than the 2024 Hoosiers, and I’ve had it in the playoff every step of the way. Indiana’s dismantling of Illinois on Saturday made me pretty confident I was right. The Hoosiers absolutely murdered the Illini in what I had tabbed a playoff eliminator.
I know Illinois was absolutely crippled by injuries, but I still think Indiana wins this football game handily with their opponents fully healthy. I mean, the Hoosiers held their opponents’ running backs to 29 yards on the ground. They had seven sacks. They had over 300 yards rushing. Fernando Mendoza was 21/23 for 267 yards.
Even with the injuries, that’s an all-out ass-beating. The injuries probably turned a 42-10 game into a 63-10 game. Not much of a difference in the end. The Hoosiers do face a harder schedule than they played in 2024, but with a clearly better quarterback and a sturdy defense, there’s no reason Indiana can’t compete with the best of the Big Ten.
Oklahoma will ride its defense into the playoff
The Sooners proved again on Saturday that they are one of the SEC’s best football teams. Sometimes, just grinding out wins when you’re not at your best is what you have to do to make the playoff. That’s just what Oklahoma did. It couldn’t really run the ball at all, and John Mateer wasn’t at his best, but behind an elite defense, OU still got the win. Those ugly wins are sometimes just as impressive than the flashy ones.
In the end, the theory I had with putting Oklahoma in the playoff was that it wouldn’t need an incredible offense to win most of its games. With that defense, bum average offensive output will usually be good enough. And Mateer will hit enough home runs to give his defense enough of a cushion. He doesn’t have to be incredible. He just has to be fine, and that’s exactly what he was against Auburn.
The Sooners essentially have two byes to get ready for Texas with Kent State visiting Norman after an actual off week. The way things are looking right now, the Sooners would be favored in that Red River Rivalry, and that feels right. The back-half of the slate is a gauntlet, but no team in that stretch isn’t beatable for Oklahoma.
Seats are getting hot all over the place
No result shocked me more this week than Oklahoma State’s loss to Tulsa Friday night. It feels like that program keeps finding a rockier bottom every week. I don’t see any scenario where Mike Gundy keeps his job after this. The Pokes’ administration will probably wait until the end of the season to move on out of respect for Gundy’s stature at the school. Nonetheless, I have no doubt Oklahoma State will have a new football coach next season.
Florida has to fire Billy Napier. It just has to. For the third week in a row, his management decisions in part led to a loss to an in-state rival. The Gators’ defense has done everything it can to keep them in these games, but Napier’s management of the offense has cost Florida dearly. He has no grasp of the offense, and has done nothing to develop DJ Lagway. If anything, he’s hurt Lagway’s development by over-protecting him from injury.
I didn’t have Wisconsin on my immediate Hot Seat Watch, but a three-score loss at home to Maryland will warm up the chair pretty quickly. I still think it’s unlikely the Badgers move on from Luke Fickell this early given everything they did to get him to town. However, Saturday’s performance was one I didn’t think Wisconsin was capable of before in the worst way possible.
Elsewhere, two coaches I don’t think get fired are Dabo Swinney and Sam Pittman. Swinney’s buyout is $60 million and doesn’t really drop until after the 2026 season. Some programs would put that money together in a heartbeat, but I don’t think Clemson has that capability. At Arkansas, I am pretty skeptical that the administration cares enough to make any sort of change. If anything, the Razorbacks will limp through the season, and Pittman will “retire” or join the athletic department in a different role.
Weekly Pick Review
I will be honest. My prediction blog for Week Four is rotting in my drafts and never got posted. However, I promise these are my real, authentic picks. They aren’t very good, so that should be proof enough.
SMU @ TCU: OVER 63.5 Points
You really couldn’t get me one more score? Disgusting.
Illinois @ Indiana: Indiana -7
Easy money. This covered within minutes.
Arizona State @ Baylor: OVER 60.5 Points
This going under was probably the best path for ASU to win the football game, so I’m just fine with losing this one. Still, I did not see that performance coming from the Sun Devil defense.
Oregon State @ Oregon: Oregon -35.5
Sigh. I probably should have known the Ducks wouldn’t run it up before next week’s visit to Penn State.
Maryland @ Wisconsin: Maryland +10
Sometimes, I just need to nut up and take the underdog to win outright. I knew the Terps would have a substantial quarterbacking advantage, but I still didn’t think they would win the game. Oh well. I’ll take the win.
Florida @ Miami: Miami -7.5
Florida’s offense is dead in the water with Lagway playing the way he is. Miami’s offense struggled and still covered fairly easily.
Week Four Record: 3-3
Season Record: 11-7
Week Four College Football Playoff Prediction
Here we go again…
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