One of the toughest things about college football is that we spend eight months trying to predict which teams will be good and which won’t, all for those guesses to come crashing down a few weeks into the season. For Clemson and Notre Dame, two teams I had in the playoff coming into the season, this is especially true. It only took three weeks for them both to exit stage left.
Granted, neither team is technically out of the race. However, given how the Irish and Tigers have performed so far, it isn’t hard to find more losses on the horizon. Notre Dame flat-out can’t afford another loss, and Clemson is 0-1 in ACC play with several difficult games yet to come.
Having to say bye to two teams I had easily locked into the field this early is a difficult pill to swallow. For this noted Texas A&M hater, this football weekend was full of such pills.
Clemson and Notre Dame will miss the College Football Playoff
I’ve already gotten into it a little bit, but the losses by Notre Dame and Clemson give them both no room for error the rest of the season.
What previously looked like a two-game schedule for the Irish now looks quite precarious. Pre-season, we would’ve said a minimum of a 1-1 split of the Miami and A&M games would get them to cruise control into the playoff field. However, after an 0-2 start, there is zero room for error. With a defense that has shown significant regression, the games against Arkansas, Boise State, and USC look particularly questionable. Another loss would certainly eliminate the Irish. Even if they win out, the Irish likely need a collapse from two-to-three power conferences to clinch an at-large bid. I don’t see that being likely.
A 1-2 start doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room for Clemson either. With SMU, Duke, Florida State, and Louisville still on the schedule, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Tigers pick up more losses. One more fall would leave them on the bubble of the ACC race (auto bid), but two slips would knock them out entirely. The way Clemson has played this season, would we be shocked to see it continue to fall short? I wouldn’t.
Let’s pump the brakes on LSU
LSU came out with a win against Florida, but it certainly did not look like a top-three team in doing so. The Tigers would have been at much bigger risk of an upset if DJ Lagway hadn’t thrown five interceptions.
The LSU defense looks substantially improved, and the numbers back that up. However, Garrett Nussmeier and this offense are fragmented and inconsistent. They have struggled to put together cohesive drives so far, and you have to question the decision making at times from their signal caller. This interception was one of the worst I’ve seen:
One of my favorite sets of stats each week, Parker Fleming’s Net Success Rate, shows LSU was really lucky to escape with a win at all. No team had a worse success rate than their opponent in a win this week. (Ignore ASU on this graphic please!) The Clemson win looks worse by the week, and LSU hasn’t really impressed outside of that football game.
Texas A&M is a bona fide playoff contender – But let’s not be too quick to hype it up
As much as it pains me to say it, I do think Texas A&M is going to be right in the thick of the playoff race come November. Looking at the rest of the Aggies’ schedule, do you see a game where they are definitively worse than their opponents? LSU and Texas will be tricky, but it’s not like those teams have blown us away either.
I’m still not a huge Marcel Reed believer, but maybe this boom-or-bust offense will work for the Aggies. They hit Notre Dame for all kinds of explosive plays, and it led to a big win. Reed still can’t see past his first read, and he misses open receivers as a result. However, if his first read is going to be wide open downfield all the time, he can make those downfield shots work.
I am also still a bit skeptical of this defense, which has allowed 4.7 yards per rush so far. Putting up those numbers against UTSA, Utah State, and Notre Dame doesn’t exactly bode well for SEC football. I still trust Mike Elko enough to scheme up a defense, so maybe we see some improvement there.
Don’t get me wrong. I think the Aggies will be right in the mix, like I said. However, I still have enough questions that I’m not yet willing to throw them in my playoff prediction yet. Winning at in South Bend is impressive, no doubt. But the reality is that A&M was a dropped extra point away from going to overtime against a Notre Dame team that is clearly not what it was last season.
Georgia is the best team in the SEC
I know LSU is still ranked higher, but Georgia to me is the most well-rounded and complete football team in the conference. It answered a lot of my questions in its comeback win over Tennessee.
Did they give up 41 points? Sure. Did Joey Aguilar throw for 371 yards? Absolutely. But Tennessee hit the Bulldogs for some fluky explosive plays. I know there are some big plays in there, but I don’t necessarily see a quarterback dicing up Georgia with scheme. There are a lot of 50/50 balls or blown coverages in there that just went Tennessee’s way.
And yet, Georgia was able to overcome those moments and win the game. Georgia’s offense going to Knoxville and putting up 44 is impressive. Gunner Stockton wasn’t perfect, but he made some big throws and added key plays with his legs.
I’m assuming Kirby Smart will get this defense back into shape. And let’s face it: Tennessee’s offense is still pretty good. It does look like Aguilar is an upgrade behind center. The Vols might do what they did to Georgia to a lot of teams. Georgia’s offense rising up and outscoring that team was eyebrow-raising to me.
The Coaching Carousel gets turning EARLY
I said in my preview that I thought an Old Dominion win in Blacksburg could spell the beginning of the end for Brent Pry at Virginia Tech. I didn’t think it would just be THE end. But it was. Pry was let go Sunday after the Hokies were thoroughly dominated at home by their in-state C-USA opponents.
On the west coast, UCLA showed DeShaun Foster the door after losing handily to New Mexico. With the Bruins on 0-12 watch, it was a move many saw coming, but maybe not quite this soon. While he was clearly not ready to be a head coach, Foster was still put in a brutal position, inheriting a low-caliber Pac-12 roster in the middle of a transition to a much more physical Big Ten. Like many others, I believe he was set up to fail at his alma mater.
No matter how bad the situations were at both programs, it is quite jarring to see coaching movement start this early in the season. But with attractive options potentially on the market, it can’t hurt to be the first to start searching. I expect Tulane’s John Sumrall and New Mexico’s Jason Eck to be among some of the first calls made by both programs, but there could be some bigger swings on the cards.
UCLA AD Martin Jarmond in particular must get this next hire right. His job likely depends on it. I for one am a bit surprised the administration is allowing him to hire Foster’s successor, but that pressure only confirms this is his last chance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bruins try to go big to revive their football program.
Weekly Pick Review
What goes up must come down. I had a great week last week, but Nick’s Six didn’t pan out as well this time around.
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame -6.5
Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. A&M winning the game outright has me completely changing my thoughts on both teams. Hey, at least my flyer on Jeremiyah Smith 70+ Rushing Yards panned out.
Georgia @ Tennessee: Georgia -4.5
I dared Joey Aguilar to prove me wrong, and he did. Also helps when the Georgia defensive backs fall over themselves.
Florida @ LSU: LSU -7.5
This one was a winner, but the path to victory was forged by DJ Lagway’s five interceptions. A win’s a win, but I don’t feel good about it.
Utah @ Wyoming: Utah -23.5
Utah is a really damn good football team. Easy dub.
Oregon @ Northwestern: Oregon OVER 37.5 Points
Really, Dan Lanning?? 31 points through three quarters and then you put up THREE in the fourth? This was the right side, and I’d bet it again. If only Oregon would have finished.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss: Arkansas +7.5
Good cover. I mentioned 6.5 would have been a stay away, but that would’ve worked out too. Taylen Green is pretty solid at quarterback, and no matter how you feel about him as a person, Bobby Petrino’s offenses tend to be as serious as a motorcycle crash.
Week Three Record: 4-3
Season Record: 8-4
Week Three Playoff Prediction
AND NOW… THE MOMENT YOU’VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR! THE TIME WHERE I AM SURELY AND COMICALLY WRONG YET AGAIN! Am I angling for a Red River Rematch in Norman? Yes. Yes, I am.
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