Yesterday, news broke that the University of Memphis had made a $200 million offer to the Big 12 to join the conference. The proposal, in which the Tigers were willing to forego revenue distributions for five years on top of the nine-figure payment, was the culmination of a years-long effort by Memphis to join a power conference.
And yet, it didn’t take very long for the Big 12 to shoot it down, both privately and publicly. While the $200 million surely was tempting, not nearly enough of the required 12 member schools support the idea.
On it’s face, flat-out denying a university with a solid football program and a historically dominant basketball team feels like a mistake. After all, the Big 12 is losing ground in the ongoing power conference wars. It can’t hurt to add a member that’s pretty good at the revenue sports, right?
Well, when you look at it from the point of view of those voting on this, it actually makes almost no sense to let Memphis in. Let’s get into it.
The Three Factors of Power Conference Membership
I know conference realignment has been largely driven by the media networks. However, school presidents and chancellors are the ones ultimately approving or denying inter-conference movement.
These lifelong academics don’t just want to be associated with solid athletic programs. They want to join up with highly-regarded and well-rounded universities. Not just athletically, but academically, socially, and financially as well.
Evaluating every current Power Four school, they all have at least one, and often multiple, of these three characteristics:
- Large enrollment driven by status as a large flagship state university. More students means a larger, more passionate fanbase including active students and alumni. To leave room for smaller states, we’ll call the benchmark here 20,000 or more undergrads.
- At least a 10-figure endowment. Universities with larger endowments have more financial muscle behind them and can healthily sustain new projects, academically and athletically. NIL muscle is separate, but the donors propping up NIL are often the same ones funding the endowment every year.
- A highly-respected academic institution. It doesn’t have to be Harvard, but a top-half-of-America ranking in most metrics suffices. For my purposes, I used US News & World Report. For context, there are 436 schools in the ranking, so the top 218 make the cut.
How the current Big 12 stacks up, and where Memphis falls short
Here’s where each Big 12 school currently stands with the three factors discussed above.
Arizona is a large state school with a 10-figure endowment and is ranked 109th academically. 3/3
Arizona State is a massive state school with a 10-figure endowment and is ranked 121st academically. 3/3
Baylor is a small private school, but has an endowment worth over $2B and is ranked 91st academically. 2/3
BYU is a large, multinational center of an entire religious system, with a $3B endowment and an academic ranking of 109 (tied with ASU). 3/3
Cincinnati is a large state school with a 10-figure endowment and a 152 academic ranking. 3/3
Colorado is a large state school with an endowment worth billions, and an academic ranking of 98. 3/3
Houston is a surprisingly big state school with an endowment worth over $1B and a 144 academic ranking. 3/3
Iowa State is a state school with a 10-figure endowment and a 121 academic ranking (tied with ASU and BYU). 3/3
Kansas is a big state school with an endowment worth nearly $2.5B and an academic ranking of 152 (tied with Cincinnati). 3/3
Kansas State is a small state school, but has a $1B endowment and ranks 165th academically. 2/3
Oklahoma State just barely meets the 20,000 undergrad student benchmark, but has a $1.5B endowment with a 196 academic ranking. 3/3
TCU is one of the smallest schools in the Power Four, but it has a $2.4B endowment and a 105 academic ranking. 2/3
Texas Tech is a large state school with a nearly $2B endowment that just barely falls into the top academic half at 214. 3/3
UCF is one of America’s largest public universities that ranks 121st academically (tied with ASU, BYU, and ISU). Surprisingly, UCF’s endowment is only worth just shy of $230M. 2/3
Utah is a flagship university with a 10-figure endowment and ranks 136th academically. 3/3
West Virginia is a small state school, but it has a massive $3B endowment. It falls just outside the top half academically at 220. 1/3
But what about Memphis? Well…
With an undergraduate enrollment under 17,000, Memphis isn’t exactly a flagship school within Tennessee. Additionally, its endowment is barely bigger than UCF’s. The deathblow to the Tigers is their academic ranking: a measly 266 according to US News & World Report.
If you’re wondering why the Big 12 leaders were so quick to shut down Memphis, there’s your answer. On its face, rejecting a decent athletic department in a fairly large market doesn’t seem like a great move.
But in reality, Big 12 decision makers have made it clear they don’t see Memphis, with it’s relatively miniscule status and stature, as a helpful addition. That might be harsh, but the truth can be harsh.
So what’s next for Memphis?
It’s fairly clear Memphis wants no part of the American moving forward. I mean, the optics of the timing of this report says enough. Dellenger’s story was released only a few hours after the American announced a rebrand.
If Memphis’s relationship with the American is as unsalvageable as it appears, I see two options for the Tigers’ future.
First, they could lean into the interest the Pac-12 has shown. The former power conference has pursued Memphis for the better part of the last year, and even offered school leadership a term sheet at one point.
It would make sense in theory for Memphis to move it’s football program to the Pac-12 while all others go to the Big East. Although, it’s worth asking if, given the characteristics discussed earlier, would the Big East be willing to let in a school like Memphis?
Either way, this is likely a sideways step for the football program. Don’t get me wrong: The Pac-12 is shaping up to be a solid conference. However, it’s most likely going to end up on the same pedestal as the American on the conference food chain. A move to the Big East would represent a likely upgrade for other sports, but is it worth sacrificing the football program in the process?
The other move is for Memphis to bide its time and wait for the seemingly inevitable collapse of the ACC. After a recent settlement between the conference, Clemson, and Florida State, member schools will be able to leave the ACC for as little as $75 million in 2031.
For some schools, that’s a massive sum. But for the ACC’s more wealthy and powerful programs, that’s a small price to pay for a spot in a better conference (assuming there’s one that wants them).
Either way, there’s a fairly strong case that most of the top-half of the conference will look to leave for greener pastures, leaving the conference fairly desperate for new members. Memphis would seemingly be a viable option.
The ACC would need to sacrifice its typical desire for highly respected academic institutions, but when your very existence is at stake, you’ll do anything to save yourself. Memphis could certainly take advantage. However, at that point, is the ACC losing its status as a power league just as the Pac-12 did?
It’s a harsh reality. The power brokers in Grind City might just have to accept that most of the school’s characteristics outside the athletic department prevent it from being accepted as a power-conference school. Perhaps it’s best for the Tigers to save the $200 million, stay in the American, and become the kings of the non-power conferences.
Follow Nick Hedges on X (@nicktrimshedges) or Instagram (@nicktrimshedges)