2024 is one of the largest election years in human history. Obviously, the United States is a major player, but people in 63 other nations are heading to the polls this year.
There’s a lot to digest around the world, but it’s important to explore the key elections and discuss the potential implications of their eventual outcomes.
The Big Ones
The largest elections taking place in 2024 come from the United States, Russia, the UK, and India.
The United States presidential election has some of the largest geopolitical implications out of all global elections this year. Everyone here in America is well aware of the stakes. However, I’m saving my analysis on this one for another article.
Russia’s presidential election has already occurred, and to the shock of the international community, Vladimir Putin won in a landslide. The implications? Ukraine will continue to be attacked by Russian forces, and Russia remains under the tight grip of a tyrant.
The United Kingdom’s general election is interesting. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must call for a general election before December 17. London think tanks project that the PM will shoot for an autumn date, which would be more advantageous for the conservative party. Conservative leaders are hopeful but wary of this election. They have the more popular stances on many issues, such as the economy and migration, earning them much-needed votes in the quest to hold both Parliament houses. However, the Israel-Gaza conflict, as well as growing environmental concerns, give way to a Labour Party that is growing ever-more confident of breaking the 14-year conservative hold on the government. If the Labour Party wins, suspect a potential change in the UK’s views on Israel, the Middle East, and fossil fuel imports.
Finally, in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party will face the Indian National Congress party (INC), who are pushing Nahul Gandhi to oppose Modi’s tenure. The INC has formed a coalition with other opposition parties in hopes of toppling the Bharatiya Janata’s control of the Indian Parliament. So far, Gandhi has been a well-received populist figure, promising to end corrupt leadership and promote social programs benefiting India’s poorest.
Potentially Massive Implications
These elections have the highest chance of producing massive geopolitical windfalls. These elections will take place in the following nations: Taiwan, South Africa, the Sahel, and the European Union.
Taiwan is set to hold a Presidential election this year. No other nation is watching this election with a closer eye than China, who will likely be evaluating all of its potential options regarding the island. The winning candidate(s) will have a lot to say about China-Taiwan policy moving forward.
South Africa is set to have a general election as well. The current leading party, the African National Congress, has faced scrutiny for its passiveness, corruption, ineptitude, and violence. As a result, many project that the ANC is likely to lose seats. This could lead to large geopolitical changes tied to South Africa’s membership in BRICS. Additionally, domestic issues are on the ballot, with a growing independence movement growing in the Western Cape.
Another large set of elections will take place in the Sahel, the region south of the Sahara desert in Western Africa. Last year was a particularly volatile time in the Sahel, and Western nations will be watching votes in nations like Chad and Mali with a close eye. These powers need to know whether the Sahel will have nations that can be reliable partners, or continue its descent into chaos.
Finally, one of the most important elections of the year is in the European Union. Yes, the European Union has elected representatives. They vote on legislation that affects topics like the European economy, climate change, and security. These elections are incredibly important; the body ultimately chooses the EU President, who sets the policy objectives of the European Union at large.
A Few Firsts
Lastly, there are a few firsts that are likely to happen this election year.
First, Mexico’s election will likely yield the nation’s first female president in Claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of CDMX. The Mexican constitution does not allow current president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to run again, and Sheinbaum, from the same party, is currently polling near 60%.
Additionally, South Sudan is set to have its first democratic election. However, international experts believe that there is absolutely no chance that this election will be free or fair.
It’s important to state in closing that every election is important. It is important that world leaders ensure free and fair elections so that as many people as possible may participate in their national governance. The elections in this article are just a few of the many important elections happening around the world, and I’ll be discussing them all year long.