Photo by Simon Bruty / Sports Illustrated / Getty Images
Do you know how hard it is to go 0-4 on four even-money bets? Mathematically, it’s just as hard as going 4-0. That’s how even odds work.
I found a way to do it last Saturday. All I can say is I’m sorry. Houston and San Francisco let me down. What can I say?
However, the beauty of sports betting is that there’s always another opportunity to make up your losses. We’ve got two really interesting conference championships this weekend, and I’m feeling pretty good about where I fall on the slate. Let’s get into it.
AFC Championship – Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – O/U 44.5
This feels like Lamar Jackson’s best chance to get to a Super Bowl, at least up until this point in his career. He’ll soon be announced as only the 11th player in league history to win multiple MVPs, and he’s coming off an incredible second-half performance against Houston in which he simply took over the game.
The Ravens have a surprising number of talented skill-position players as well: Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Dalvin Cook form a unique three-headed backfield. Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham Jr., form the best receiving corps Lamar has had in his career. On top of all that, Mark Andrews was activated this week. It’s not just Lamar. The Ravens are simply stacked on offense.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore is wildly athletic and just held an explosive Texans offense without an offensive touchdown.
All this gets canceled out by the mental block of betting against Patrick Mahomes. There’s certainly an air of inevitability about him. He doesn’t have nearly as many weapons as Lamar does, but you can never rule him out of making the spectacular happen. Plus, this is the best defense Kansas City has thrown out there in the Mahomes era.
Nonetheless, I’ll just have to get over it. The Ravens are at home, on a roll, and they’ll be too much for even Mahomes to overcome. The weather will be cold and rainy, so I’ll take the under as well.
RAVENS -3.5, UNDER 44.5
NFC Championship – Detroit Lions (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers – O/U 51.5
We all know about the 49ers’ skill positions and how talented they are. McCaffrey, Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk form the most formidable group to defend in the league. It certainly doesn’t help that the Lions’ defense is by far the most suspect of any team left in the playoffs.
However, San Francisco left much to be desired in their near-disastrous performance against Green Bay. The Packers’ defense is similarly liable to Detroit’s, but their offense is not nearly as dynamic.
Don’t get me wrong – I respect the hell out of what Jordan Love did this season, but the Lions’ offense is at a whole other level. Jared Goff has been fantastic so far in the playoffs, and his stable of receivers and running backs are exceptional. Game-planning for Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, AND a healthy Sam LaPorta is no easy feat.
I fully expect a shootout which would favor Detroit given its defensive liabilities. I’m not as strong a believer in this 49ers defense as some others; it certainly isn’t at the same level as the units coordinated by DeMeco Ryans. Gibbs and LaPorta will give the Niners fits, and if it comes down to quarterback play, I believe the Lions have a slight edge over Brock Purdy and San Francisco.
I think the Niners ultimately win the game, but it will be closer than the 7.5.
LIONS +7.5, OVER 51.5
RECAP
- Ravens -3.5
- Chiefs/Ravens UNDER 44.5
- Lions +7.5
- Lions/49ers OVER 51.5
Nick’s ALL-TIME game picks record on The Camp: 16-23
Time to pick up some wins.
Follow Nick Hedges on X (@nicktrimshedges) or Instagram (@nicktrimshedges)