Photo by Sam Hodde / Associated Press
The NFL playoffs are trucking right along. We’re down to the final eight, and there are some awesome games to look forward to. I’m gonna take a look and give my picks.
All lines are via FanDuel.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Tailing my picks is a HUGE risk. I am an awful gambler. You should probably fade me if you want to make some money.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) – O/U 43.5
It will be below freezing at kickoff, and I worry about Houston’s ability to adapt its game to the cold weather. Baltimore is much better equipped to shift to run-first options. Still, I think CJ Stroud and the Texans’ run defense is good enough to keep this within the 9.5.
The Ravens win, and it might be comfortable, but there’s every possibility the Texans could keep it close enough to cover.
TEXANS +9.5, UNDER 43.5
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – O/U 50.5
There may not be anything more dangerous than a team with nothing to lose, and that’s the Packers at the moment. Jordan Love was excellent against Dallas, and if he can do it to the Cowboys, he can certainly dice up the 49ers, who don’t necessarily match up well against Green Bay’s wide receivers.
However, it’s A LOT to ask a team to go from Wisconsin to Dallas to Santa Clara in three straight elimination games and win all of them, especially when you have to deal with a San Francisco offense that figures to be completely healthy and ready to roll.
It’s been pretty simple: When the Niners have Deebo, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Kittle, and Williams healthy, they are borderline unstoppable. I don’t see this suspect Green Bay defense being able to hold them at bay.
49ERS -9.5, OVER 50.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) – O/U 48.5
The best Lions season this century rolls into the divisional in a game that I keep going back and forth on. There’s a weird aura about Baker Mayfield and that Bucs’ offense, but I keep considering how much of a disaster that Eagles team really was.
On the flip side, I think Detroit beat a very capable Rams team in the first round, giving them some much needed playoff hardening. I do think Los Angeles is better than Tampa, so that plays a part in my thinking.
Ultimately, Lions OC Ben Johnson is under consideration for head coaching jobs, and he’ll be available for interviews after this weekend. I think he’ll want to show off what he can do with that offense before he heads into those meetings.
LIONS -6.5, OVER 48.5
As a bonus, I love any sort of OVER you can get on St. Brown receiving yards, Gibbs rushing + receiving, LaPorta receptions, and potentially even Rachaad White rush attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – O/U 45.5
The game of the week. It will be freezing again in Buffalo, but Kansas City is just as used to it as the Bills are.
Patrick Mahomes was excellent last week in bad weather, and the Chiefs did a great job containing a Miami offense that is tougher to defend than Buffalo’s.
Ultimately, I worry about Buffalo’s defense. It is pretty banged up, and even if some of the Bills’ more important players are available, they’ll be playing hurt. It’s tough enough to stop Mahomes fully healthy. I just wonder if Mahomes’s own receivers will slow him down more than the Bills defense.
Someone on that Kansas City offense has to step up, but I think Mahomes makes enough plays to get it done. I also think Mahomes values his ownership of Josh Allen in the playoffs and will desperately want to continue that trend this year.
CHIEFS +2.5, UNDER 45.5
RECAP
- Texans +9.5
- Texans/Ravens UNDER 43.5
- 49ers -9.5
- Packers/49ers OVER 50.5
- Lions -6.5
- Buccaneers/Lions OVER 48.5
- Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 91.5 receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 75.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Sam LaPorta OVER 4.5 receptions
- Rachaad White OVER 15.5 rush attempts
- Chiefs +2.5
- Chiefs/Bills UNDER 45.5
Nick’s ALL-TIME game picks record on The Camp: 11-16 (Yikes)
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