Photo by Wilfredo Lee / Associated Press
An NFL season as topsy-turvy and underwhelming as 2023 was bound to result in some downright weird playoff situations, and week 18 certainly didn’t disappoint.
Jacksonville somehow managed to miss the playoffs. Houston won its division. Buffalo won its division. There’s a lot to digest, but here are six big takeaways as we head into the playoffs.
What the hell happened in the AFC South?
After an 8-3 start, the Jaguars finished the season 1-5 to choke away the division title to Houston. To make matters worse, Jacksonville just needed to beat Tennessee, an already eliminated team with nothing to play for, to clinch the division on the season’s last day.
I have another separate blog coming soon on this, but I think it’s time to ask some pretty serious questions about Trevor Lawrence and whether or not he’s the guy we thought he was. I know he was playing hurt toward the end of the year, but it’s not like he was great before the injury either. On Sunday, Lawrence was just a few inches off on throw after throw after throw, and you can’t have that from your quarterback if you expect to be making consistent playoff appearances.
On the other side, the Texans somehow held on to beat the Colts in a game that turned out to be the AFC South championship game due to Jacksonville’s loss. CJ Stroud was excellent and made key plays in the fourth quarter when it mattered most.
However, the story of the game is that the Colts, driving late with a chance to score a game-winning touchdown, called a shotgun pass on fourth-and-inches instead of handing the ball to Johnathan Taylor, who gashed the Texans all night.
As pointed out in that tweet, leaving both Taylor AND Zach Moss on the sideline on the season’s most important play is borderline negligent play calling by Shane Steichen.
It’s bad all-around. It’s an awful play call. The throw by Gardner Minshew is behind his receiver and kills his momentum. And, of course, the drop by Taylor Goodson can’t happen. It’s AT LEAST a first down and potentially more.
However, when you choose to take the ball out of your best player’s hands, you’re leaving yourself liable to mistakes. You can tell yourself it’s not your fault all you want, but Shane Steichen – this one is clearly on YOU, not on your quarterback.
The Steelers zombie their way into the playoffs
You just knew that Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh would somehow find their way into the playoffs. This is objectively a bad team, but it still ended up with a winning record and a playoff berth.
What will it take for Mike Tomlin to whiff on a season? Nuclear apocalypse? The sun exploding? Sticking with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback?
The Steelers were incredibly lucky to waltz into Baltimore to play a team with nothing on the line, and they STILL almost lost.
I mean, this team lost to the Patriots last month. And yet, here they are.
Buffalo somehow wins the AFC East
So many people have spent time talking about how the Bills might miss the playoffs entirely, and yet, they won the AFC East with last night’s win over Miami.
The Buffalo defense was quite impressive in holding the Dolphins to only 14 points, but I still have A LOT of concerns about Josh Allen. He wasn’t particularly good last night, turning the ball over several times. He’s liable to make several of these kinds of throws every game:
Allen’s turnover rate is a serious liability for the Bills heading into the playoffs. Buffalo is lucky that it gets Pittsburgh in the first round, but after that, I wouldn’t be surprised if those turnovers become a serious problem.
Dallas overcomes Philadelphia in the standings – Eagles in trouble?
For what it’s worth, both of the NFC East playoff representatives are on my fraud radar heading into the playoffs, but the Eagles in particular are squarely in the center of my crosshairs.
Philadelphia has struggled all season, even in its wins, and now they have to go to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round to play a suddenly frisky Bucs team? The Eagles shouldn’t lose, but they might!
I’m also not entirely sold on Dallas in the playoffs. Anyone can beat Washington by four scores, but other Cowboys results of late have been alarming:
- The referees handed them a win over Detroit on a platter
- They lost to an injury-ridden Dolphins team
- Got smoked by Buffalo
- Killed Philadelphia (again, number one on the fraud radar)
- Barely beat Seattle, who missed the playoffs entirely
That’s a pretty solid five-week sample size of not-great performances. I don’t think Green Bay will be a walk in the park in the first round, either.
Do I think both NFC East teams in the playoffs should make it to round 2? Yes. Would I be surprised if either or both didn’t? Nope.
Matthew Stafford will play quarterback in Detroit’s first home playoff game… for the visitors
I’m heartbroken for Lions fans. The most tortured fanbase in the league finally gets a home playoff game, and instead of spending the week celebrating an incredible season and looking forward to the first round, Lions fans have to worry about their former beloved franchise quarterback coming to town and taking their lunch money.
I don’t want to think about how miserable it will feel if the Rams pull off the upset. Matthew Stafford, after years and years trying to get the Lions over the line, finally wins a playoff game in Motown for the OTHER team!? Disastrous.
You also have the McVay vs. Goff plotline that runs just as deep. I mean, they might not have spent as much time together as the Lions and Stafford, but they did go to a Super Bowl together. Not to mention that Goff is miles better now than he was at any point under McVay.
The game is deeply personal for both quarterbacks and at least one head coach (wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Campbell found some sort of way to make this personal, too).
It’ll be a fun watch. Just biting my nails over what might happen if Detroit loses.
The 2023 Green Bay Packers earn an NFC Wild Card spot
It’s January 2024, Aaron Rodgers keeps making a fool of himself, and the Green Bay Packers, led by the quarterback they drafted to replace Rodgers, are in the playoffs.
I’ll discuss the Rodgers stuff in a different post, but back to the Packers. Jordan Love was seriously impressive, and there’s clear development of a rapport between him and that young receiving corps.
I could see a world where the recent productivity is the result of their schedule. Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago isn’t exactly a gauntlet. Either way, we’ll find out when the Packers go to Dallas to face the Cowboys this weekend in the first round.
If Love lights up the Cowboys, look out. The Packers could be right back at the forefront of the discussion in the NFC.
Follow Nick Hedges on X (@nicktrimshedges) or Instagram (@nicktrimshedges)