Will Georgia 3-Peat? College Football predictions and rankings

It’s one of my favorite times of year. The thick summer air getting cut by a tinge of crisp fall breeze means one thing: COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

My predictions have been through tons of iterations and versions, but I’m finally ready to bring them out. Here we go!

ACC

It’s pretty clear that it’s a two team race here; Clemson and Florida State will battle it out at the top and will both likely be playoff contenders.

For Clemson, Garrett Riley’s arrival as the offensive coordinator is a huge addition. Even throughout the Tigers’ recent relative struggles, their defense has been dominant. With Riley coming in to overhaul the offense, I have a fair amount of confidence in them to improve over last year.

Florida State, on the other hand, brings back a ton of talent on offense, and Jordan Travis is a preseason Heisman contender. We’ll find out a lot about them right off the bat when they play LSU in Orlando week one.

Clemson and Florida State play each other week four, which is super early. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the winner of that game loses the rematch in the conference championship.

Elsewhere, there isn’t a ton to like about the rest of the conference. North Carolina’s offense will be electric, but I have no faith in that defense. Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and NC State will be fine but nothing to write home about. Other than that, I’m not super excited about anyone else here.

Conference Championship: Florida State is slightly behind Clemson in my preseason power rankings, but I think the Seminoles’ continuity of their returning talent and staff will serve them well in their regular season meeting. However, Clemson will likely be a completely different team when they rematch, and I think they’ll beat Florida State to win the conference.

Big 12

The story of this conference in 2023 begins and ends with Texas. The Longhorns are one of the most talented teams in America, but if they fail to play up to that talent, which is typical for them, the conference becomes wide open.

My preseason power rankings have Oklahoma rated surprisingly high, but I don’t necessarily agree with that assessment. They have plenty of talent, but after last year’s dismal showing, I’m not super confident in the Sooners’ ability to bounce back in a major way.

Beyond those two, the Big 12 is a conference full of wild cards. TCU rode this “wild card” wave all the way to the National Championship game last year so I’d be foolish to write any of them, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, or UCF completely off. All those teams are good enough to edge their way to double-digit win seasons.

If I had to pick one to watch from that group, it’s Kansas State. The Wildcats are so well disciplined, so well coached, and have an experienced quarterback coming back.

Everyone else in the conference will be meh or worse. Watch out for West Virginia as a program that could completely implode very early in the year.

Conference Championship: Perhaps foolishly, I really buy into the Texas hype this year. The week two visit to Tuscaloosa will be a massive test, but even if the Longhorns lose to Alabama, they could run the table in the conference. To face them in the conference championship, I’ll go with the always-solid, defending conference champions in Kansas State. Stereotypically wild Big 12 games often come down to mistakes, and KSU doesn’t make many. It’ll be tight, but I have Texas getting the better of the Wildcats to win the conference.

Big Ten

In my opinion, this is the most top-heavy conference in football this year. The top two teams in my preseason power rankings, Michigan and Ohio State, along with Penn State, form a very formidable top three.

Beyond them, however, there isn’t much to discuss. Wisconsin with a new look offense will definitely be interesting, and I think they’ll likely be the team offered up to the east winner in the conference championship.

I have no faith in Iowa or the rest of the Big Ten to do anything of national relevance. Maryland and Minnesota will be interesting watches and could prove tricky for the better teams in the conference, but they are a long way off the top tier.

I still think Penn State is a slight step behind Ohio State and Michigan, although the Nittany Lions will be better this year than last.

In terms of the Michigan v. Ohio State debate, Barstool’s Brandon Walker summed it up best:

Ohio State is built to win national titles.

Michigan is built to beat Ohio State. pic.twitter.com/kMKEgwtplh

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) August 28, 2023

Ignore the face paint, please.

Conference Championship: Michigan is built to pound teams like Ohio State into the ground and wear them down. I think they’ll do it again this year AND beat Wisconsin in Indianapolis.

Pac-12

In what will be its swan song, the Pac-12 will be an incredibly strong conference across the board, and I’m not just saying that as a fan – the conference has six teams in the top 30 of my preseason power rankings, which is second-most behind the SEC.

The most talented team in the conference is USC, but the Trojans scare me on defense. They’ll have to outscore some of the nation’s best offenses to win, and no matter how good Caleb Williams is, I am unsure how sustainable that is.

There is also a lot of hype for Oregon given Bo Nix’s return, but I don’t quite buy it as much as others. Between his freshman year at Auburn and last year in Eugene, Nix had his only good years with Kenny Dillingham as his OC. In between, Dillingham was at Florida State, and Nix stunk. Nix will have to go this year without his crutch, with Dillingham now the head coach at Arizona State.

All the above is to say that I buy into the Washington hype way more. Key players and staff are all coming back, led by Michael Penix Jr.. The Huskies were a bad loss to ASU away from being firmly in the playoff discussion themselves, and they are better in 2023 than they were in 2022.

Of course, teams like Utah, Oregon State, and UCLA could certainly have something to say about the conference championship picture.

Conference Championship: Despite a sketchy defense, I still expect USC to ride its unbelievable offense to the final Pac-12 championship, where I think they’ll meet Washington in a rematch of a Nov. 4 regular season game in Los Angeles. It’s a tough game to call, but as long as he’s healthy, Williams will be the best player on the field. Give me the Trojans here.

SEC

My power rankings love LSU, ranking them third in the country and first in the conference. The Tigers have a lot of talent returning, but I know Jayden Daniels too well not to believe he’ll make a mistake in one or multiple games that proves fatal.

Nonetheless, Daniels gives the Tigers a more stable quarterback situation than Alabama or Georgia. It will be fascinating to see how the signal calling plays out at both schools, but around the quarterback, both teams provide a fantastic foundation for success.

Alabama will have an otherworldly offensive line, and Georgia is Georgia. Both teams will be extremely formidable up front, but skill positions (not counting Brock Bowers) could be of concern.

Elsewhere, the conference boasts a lot of solid teams that aren’t quite at the level of the aforementioned three. Tennessee, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Kentucky all feature in my preseason top 30. Every one of those teams will be very good, but they all have easily identified flaws that could prove costly later in the season.

It’s just the nature of the SEC that I expect teams like Mississippi State, Missouri, and Florida, none of which are that bad, to struggle to make a bowl game.

Conference Championship: I don’t think Nick Saban is losing back-to-back years to LSU, especially with this year’s meeting taking place in Tuscaloosa. I think the Tide will win the west, and Georgia won’t have any problems in the east.

Both teams are loaded, and the matchup feels pretty loaded. I’ll defer to the model/ratings and give Georgia the edge.

College Football Playoff

I’ve given this a lot of thought, but without further ado…

First Two Out

6. Texas

I really wanted to put the Longhorns in, but it’s hard to see them getting through their schedule with less than two losses.

Playing Alabama in non-conference is tough, because it leaves them with no margin for error in Big 12 play. Now, if you guarantee me that Texas beats Alabama, then I would put them in, no question about it.

They could have a great year, win the Big 12, but miss the playoff with a 10-2 record. I think that scenario is likely.

5. LSU

I think the Tigers will be very good this year but just miss out on the playoff. It will likely come down to their game against Alabama, which I am preemptively picking the Tide to win.

LSU is probably one of the best four teams this year on paper, but other teams will have better resumes and stronger records overall. It’s tough, but them’s the breaks in a four-team playoff.

The Playoff Four

4. Clemson

Full disclosure – I wrote three or four sentences here listing out reasons to put USC here, but I started writing about their potential resumé and all the teams they would have beaten along the way, and I really didn’t like the Trojans’ chances of getting through that schedule with one loss or less.

I like Clemson’s path much more. The Tigers’ season likely boils down to three games: Sep. 23 versus Florida State, Nov. 4 against Notre Dame, and the ACC Championship, presumably a rematch against the Noles.

They get both regular season games at home, which certainly helps.  If they can go 2-1 in those three and avoid any slip-ups, they would likely be in the top four at that point.

New OC Garrett Riley took an offense with less talent to the national championship last season, so I think he will make a massive difference.

Of course, this could all go to hell right away if the Tigers go to Duke and decide to take Labor Day off like the rest of America.

3. Alabama

In this scenario, Alabama is 12-1 coming off a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Well-deserving of the three seed.

This Alabama team won’t be the most exciting to watch, but it’ll be a throwback to old-fashioned Tide football – dominating line play with skill positions that perform just well enough for the team to succeed.

There are definitely some tough games on the schedule. I could see the Tide struggling against any combination of Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, or Auburn (basically every conference game they play). It’s just hard to beat teams that are as physical as Alabama will be this year on both sides of the ball.

It’ll be a grind. It’ll be tough to watch at times. But I fully expect Saban and co. to bounce back and get back into the playoff in 2023.

2. Michigan

As I mentioned in the Big 12 section, the Wolverines will simply wear everyone else in the conference, including Ohio State and Penn State, completely down.

They have a ton of talent coming back with a real point to prove after last year’s playoff debacle against TCU.

On top of that, their schedule plays out very well. Beat Penn State and Ohio State and they’re in. That’s definitely easier said than done, but I think they’ll come through just fine.

A Michigan-Alabama semifinal would be a grind-it-out face-off for the ages.

1. Georgia

Who else? It’s tough to bet against the back-to-back defending champs.

Relative to their skill level and talent, it’s realistic to say the Bulldogs won’t face a team close to their level until the SEC Championship.

That matchup with Alabama will be a tight game, but I give Georgia a slight edge. Its athletes and talent will be too much for the Tide. There really isn’t another game on the schedule that threatens their ability to go undefeated and get in as the number one seed.

National Champion

MICHIGAN

Georgia will cruise through Clemson into the natty, but I think Michigan-Alabama has potential to be an all-time semifinal on the other side of the bracket.

Michigan puts opposing athletes into tough, gritty situations they don’t want to be in. They will be extremely hard to beat this year, and I think this is the year Harbaugh finally takes that next step.

Don’t get me wrong – Georgia three-peating would not be surprising AT ALL. It’s just really, really hard to do. Getting to within one win of doing it is beyond impressive.

Nonetheless, this season should be incredibly entertaining, and is definitely the last of its kind before conference realignment takes over. No matter how right or how wrong I am, it’ll still be awesome.

Soak it in. Enjoy it. (And Forks Up)

Nick’s Power Rankings (Preseason)

Why stop at 25 when we have all 133? 

The scores are out of 100, and the gaps between teams are more-or-less representative of the point spread for a head-to-head matchup on a neutral field.

Rank	School	Score
1	Michigan	97.6035
2	Ohio State	96.844
3	LSU	96.3915
4	Georgia	96.15
5	Texas	95.574
6	USC	95.3225
7	Alabama	94.318
8	Tennessee	93.5765
9	Clemson	93.05
10	Texas A&M	92.9635
11	Penn State	92.7855
12	Oklahoma	92.2185
13	Notre Dame	92.0905
14	Florida State	91.461
15	Utah	91.1725
16	Ole Miss	90.9835
17	Oregon	90.8805
18	Wisconsin	90.7325
19	Washington	90.558
20	TCU	88.075
21	Kansas State	87.8825
22	Auburn	85.7965
23	Iowa	85.661
24	North Carolina	85.3565
25	Texas Tech	85.175
26	Baylor	85.122
27	Arkansas	84.261
28	South Carolina	84.0695
29	Oregon State	83.6685
30	Kentucky	83.6515
31	UCLA	83.116
32	Oklahoma State	82.8205
33	UCF	82.422
34	Florida	82.1675
35	Minnesota	82.0005
36	Maryland	81.1325
37	Miami (FL)	80.7915
38	Pitt	79.662
39	Louisville	78.7925
40	Iowa State	78.516
41	Mississippi State	78.123
42	Illinois	77.869
43	NC State	77.43
44	Boise State	76.6435
45	Michigan State	76.403
46	Nebraska	76.186
47	Tulane	76.1745
48	Kansas	75.35
49	Missouri	75.059
50	BYU	74.9735
51	Wake Forest	73.031
52	West Virginia	72.7685
53	Washington State	72.5665
54	Purdue	72.5235
55	SMU	72.4675
56	Duke	72.2825
57	Cincinnati	71.7935
58	UTSA	71.709
59	Cal	71.606
60	Syracuse	70.241
61	Houston	70.1145
62	Arizona State	68.1065
63	Memphis	67.634
64	Air Force	66.1325
65	James Madison	66.067
66	Arizona	65.824
67	Virginia Tech	65.6205
68	South Alabama	65.581
69	Troy	65.264
70	Appalachian State	64.935
71	Toledo	64.133
72	Fresno State	64.0805
73	Boston College	63.625
74	Coastal Carolina	63.6185
75	Western Kentucky	63.173
76	Marshall	62.9515
77	San Diego State	62.435
78	Florida Atlantic	62.2675
79	Rutgers	62.217
80	Georgia Tech	61.878
81	Indiana	60.8645
82	Northwestern	59.947
83	Louisiana	59.146
84	East Carolina	58.123
85	Virginia	58.0385
86	Colorado	57.06
87	Ohio	56.971
88	Wyoming	56.829
89	Navy	54.9885
90	Vanderbilt	54.8145
91	San Jose State	54.167
92	North Texas	54.059
93	Stanford	53.959
94	Eastern Michigan	52.6625
95	Army	52.3055
96	Miami (OH)	52.0865
97	UAB	51.593
98	Liberty	51.4745
99	Buffalo	51.2905
100	Northern Illinois	51.038
101	Georgia Southern	50.937
102	Central Michigan	50.054
103	Middle Tennessee	49.953
104	Temple	49.795
105	Georgia State	49.1215
106	Louisiana Tech	47.979
107	Ball State	47.6305
108	Southern Miss	47.5715
109	UNLV	46.638
110	Utah State	46.591
111	Colorado State	46.215
112	Tulsa	46.1435
113	Rice	45.7235
114	UConn	45.334
115	Western Michigan	45.251
116	South Florida	45.0005
117	UTEP	43.824
118	Nevada	43.6045
119	Arkansas State	42.584
120	Old Dominion	42.5215
121	New Mexico State	40.3185
122	Charlotte	40.175
123	Bowling Green	40.1655
124	Akron	39.824
125	UMass	39.325
126	Hawaii	39.1075
127	Texas State	38.916
128	New Mexico	38.6645
129	Sam Houston State	38.4475
130	Florida International	38.1985
131	Kent State	37.5645
132	Louisiana-Monroe	37.2215
133	Jacksonville State	37.008

Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges