In part one, I discussed the latest news about the Pac-12, and I essentially concluded that the conference is headed for some kind of significant upheaval at the very least.
Let’s now evaluate some possibilities I could see happening.
Scenario One: The Big 12 and Big Ten come back for more
The Big 12 has been very public about its desire to continue adding schools, and given its current footprint including recent additions, inviting Colorado, Utah, Arizona State, and Arizona would be an aggressive but logical next step. At that point, the Big 12 would own the Phoenix and Salt Lake City markets, taking a huge chunk out of the Pac-12’s value and geography.
Down to six members now. Let’s throw SMU and San Diego State in there, as we discussed in part one. Up to eight.
Next, Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big Ten. They probably need a partner to keep the conference even, and an option that’s been discussed is Stanford given the academic and historical connections between the schools. So Stanford leaves to equal out Notre Dame in the Big Ten, and we’re down to seven.
Of course, Oregon and Washington are probably the two most valuable properties left in the Pac-12 before all these shenanigans. After a lot of debate, the Big Ten finally decides to invite them. Down to five.
We can’t see the Ducks and Huskies leave without considering their partner schools. Oregon and Oregon State, as far as we know, are legally tied together in conference realignment, and rumor has it that Washington and Washington State have the same arrangement.
However, money tends to speak loudly, so let’s say the Big Ten ponies up the funds to get those laws off the books.
At this point, the Pac-12 comprises Oregon State, Washington State, Cal, San Diego State, and SMU. That’s not getting anything done.
If the conference wants to survive from here, you’re probably looking at adding Mountain West schools, AAC members, or even some lower-status universities.
Fresno State would make sense given San Diego State’s place in the conference, and Boise State gives Washington State a close geographic partner. Up to seven.
Next, the Pac-12 makes a move into Las Vegas and adds UNLV. Bad athletics, good market. Eight members now.
Now, the conference would be smart to try and find SMU some geographic partners. North Texas, UTSA, or Tulane would make sense here. For the sake of evenness, let’s add all three and throw in San Jose State (?) to give Cal a Bay Area counterpart.
Now, the Pac-12 is a 12-member conference comprising original members Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, and newcomers SMU, San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV, North Texas, UTSA, Tulane, and San Jose State.
This wouldn’t be considered a power conference, but in terms of survival, George Kliavkoff could do a lot worse. At this point, you have some kind of footprint covering southern California, the Bay Area, Portland, Boise, Las Vegas, Dallas, San Antonio, and New Orleans. Could be worse given the circumstances.
Scenario Two: Kliavkoff comes through
This is what I hope happens, but it is a little far-fetched. Kliavkoff has promised that the Pac-12 is going to get a better media deal than the Big 12 in terms of per-school value. Let’s say he comes through on that promise.
This would likely be the result of a massive linear/streaming combination deal that nets the conference a huge sum.
This new deal would likely keep the remaining ten members together. Oregon and Washington stay. Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado stay. A solid core of ten schools.
Now, let’s add SMU and San Diego State as we’ve been discussing. Back to twelve.
Here’s where things get interesting. It’s been long speculated that the Pac-12 could net a big media deal and look to poach from other power conferences.
Let’s say Oklahoma State and Texas Tech get their heads turned by the Pac-12’s deal, and Kliavkoff obliges them. We’re up to 14 and starting to eat away at the Big 12. Really good progress.
What happens next in this scenario is anyone’s guess, but I think the Pac-12 would likely stay put at this group of 14. Everyone is solidly committed and you’ve got real market penetration in Big 12 country.
This is the best case scenario, but unfortunately, it’s also highly unlikely.
Scenario Three: Pac-12/Mountain West merger
Returning to the beginning of scenario one, we’re in a spot where Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado all leave for greener pastures. Stanford chooses to remain alongside Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State as remaining original members.
It would make decent sense in this case for the Mountain West and Pac-12 to simply merge, resulting in a mid-major superconference with those four along with Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, UNLV, Hawaii, and Nevada.
That’s not an awful 16 teams. At this point, you still have a decent share of the west coast, and you do have 16 freaking teams. That’s sizable.
Notably, SMU gets left out here, but it probably wouldn’t care at this point because the Pac-12/MW conference would have the same stature as the AAC, where SMU currently sits. No point in making a sideways move.
Full credit to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd who threw this out as a legitimate possibility.
Scenario Four: Pac-12/ACC merger
This would be bonkers, but it could happen! At this point, nothing in conference realignment would surprise me.
The Pac-12 and ACC are clearly on the outskirts of the power conference conversation, so to preserve themselves, they form some kind of merger. Let’s break it down.
For things to get to this point, we are probably living in a world where the Big Ten has taken Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and maybe even Cal, and the SEC has taken Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and potentially North Carolina.
Both conferences are built by leftovers. Leftovers plus leftovers equals… more leftovers?
Let’s say Cal and UNC ultimately stay put. This conference now contains Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, UNC, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.
By my count, that’s 18 schools from coast-to-coast? Talk about a super conference! This arrangement would in all likelihood supplant the Big 12’s status as number three on the totem pole and give the Pac-12 and ACC much-needed life. It would be a logistical nightmare, if USC and UCLA can be in the same conference as Rutgers and Maryland, we can figure this out too.
What would this mediocre monstrosity be called? The Pac-Acc? The Bi-Coastal Conference? BCC has a nice ring to it. The Manifest Destiny Division?
I have no idea, but I love this plan. I’m a big fan of chaos, and this is about as much chaos as my brain can conjure.
Whatever happens, George Kliavkoff better figure it out and figure it out fast. Other conferences are on the hunt, and the Pac-12 is dangerously close to being the odd man out.
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